NO, THIS MEANS THAT YOU HAVE TO KNOW COMPEITORS' PLANS BEFORE YOU CAN FIGHT WITH THEM.
IF YOU DON'T KNOW THEIR STRATEGY, YOU SHOULD CERTAINLY NOT DO BATTLE WITH THEM.
The Art of War

Enough of the excuses. Everything from poor scouting reports to bad field conditions to exalted expectations have run through the A's clubhouse like a deep-fried taco washed down with Pachuca (that's in Mexico) tap water.

The quotes coming out of the A's do not sound like this is a team that has been to the playoffs the last four seasons...or a team that is headed to the playoffs this season.

"We haven't been playing real well lately. If we don't turn it around, we're in trouble." - Eric Byrnes, Grasper of the obvious
"I take the blame for this one tonight. Any time you give up three runs in the first inning, it puts pressure on your offense and makes it a little tougher." - Tim Hudson, Stand up guy
"I don't think we have a very good scouting report on the young guys. As soon as we figure out how to pitch Dobbs and Reed, we'll be all right." - Tim Hudson, Not so stand-up, and unaware that such things as cameras, videotape, statistics, the internet and telephones do indeed exist
"It's a big week. Either we get the job done and we're in the playoffs or we're not. There's no pressure. Hopefully, I'm answering questions about how to get the monkey off our back in the first round (next week), and if not, we'll make plans to have a good off season and worry about next year. We've played about as bad as we can for the last month, and we're tied for first place. Obviously, we want to play at the top of our game, and we're busting our butts but it's just not working for us. It could be one at-bat, one outing that turns it around. If not, we're done." - Eric Chavez, Unwilling to comprehend the situation
"Nothing changes because we have to get ourselves together." - Ken Macha, What are you talking about?
"Any way you see the scenario, we have to win three of the next four no matter what. I hope we can do the job tomorrow and make things interesting for the weekend. We know where we're at." - Mark Kotsay, Yes, please make things interesting with two turn-tables and a microphone
"I talked about it with Mach and Billy (Beane) and we all felt the same. His results haven't been great, but he's been throwing the ball OK. I expect him to come up with some good quality on Friday. Sink comes from consistent release of the baseball. He's been a little inconsistent. There's a feeling you've got to develop." - A's Pitching Coach Curt Young on Mark Mulder, what exactly is good quality as compared to say, bad quality?
"If we can stay in it, there's going to be a time when I get hot."- Eric Chavez, Ugh, Eric...if you get 'hot', then you are in. DO you understand that? This isn't chicken/egg scenario time
"It's been a problem all year. Someone pointed out to me that we've set an (Oakland) record for hits (with 1,522) this season, that we're going to have two guys hit .300 for only the second time. The idea is to score runs." - Ken Macha, Maybe if you didn't have the two players batting .300 five spots apart in the batting order you could score some runs...oh, and if Scott Hatteberg had not gone into a second half swoon (thanks to not getting a day off) the A's would have had three .300 hitters

You could not ask for a more glorious example of Ken Macha's ineptitude with in-game management than last night. From the line-up to the bullpen to the inane comments after the game.

Happy 54th birthday, jackass.

AN ATHLETICS CRISIS

Get up off your fat ass and come to the Network Associates Coliseum and pay the $9 it costs for a bleacher seat to watch the A's play.

Yes, they look terrible right now, but, do you want to be sitting at home when/if they turn it around? All it will take is a 4 or 5 run inning...by the offense, for a change.

These are the times that try fans' souls. The summer lay about and the bandwagon bobblehead seeker, may, in this time of crisis, shrink from the service of their team. But they who stand now and chant, "Let's Go A's" deserve the love and thanks of man and woman. Bad baseball, like hell, is not easily conquered, yet we have this consolation with us, that the harder the conflict, the A's simply need to score more runs than the opponent.
- Thomas Paine, Oakland A's fan

THEREFORE, THOSE SKILLED IN MILITARY OPERATIONS ACHIEVE COOPERATION IN A GROUP SO THAT DIRECTING THE GROUP IS LIKE DIRECTING A SINGLE INDIVIDUAL WITH NO OTHER CHOICE.

The Art of War

Well.

The A's must now sweep the Angels this weekend.

The A's continue to play bad baseball.

It's just not fun being an A's fan right now.

NOTICE:

I was able to sell all of the tickets I had available for Friday night in about 15 minutes. So, thanks to all of those who participated - the tickets have been mailed each with a good omen included. The Smuin Ballet will get a regular-sized, non-novelty check in the amount of $110 in the name of Bill King. As much as I like over-sized novelty checks, it didn't seem appropriate in this case.

If you want to grab a bleacher seat ticket for $9 and sit with the group, let me know in advance and I will do my best to hold a seat for you. Just look for the 'PLAYER to be NAMED LATER FAN CLUB' banner in rightfield. We'll be behind that.

Don't be afraid to introduce yourself before the game or in between innings...but, please, do not do it while action on the field is occurring. I tend to get antsy when I miss pitches and I do want to give you my full attention. Plus, I have the scorebook and a notebook open when I watch games so I have to throw things to the side and then stand up so it's a great big hassle.

Just a quick thought or two:

• In the span of a week, Barry Zito gave up 3-run homeruns to two players who have a combined total of 3 homeruns in 512 at-bats for 2004. Eric Young of Texas on September 22nd and Willie Bloomquist on September 27th. Sandwiched in-between those two homeruns was David Eckstein hitting a solo homerun off of Arthur Rhodes Sunday; his second homerun of the season in 549 at bats.


• Why is real estate so expensive in the BayArea? Market demand. The San Francisco Giants lead all of MLB with 1254 runners Left On Base, the Oakland A's are second with 1247 runners Left On Base (breaking the Oakland Athletics team record of 1246 set by the 1999 Oakland A's). With all of those highly-paid athletes trying to get home, you had better have a good realtor.
  NOTE: Yes, the joke can also be related to traffic, but real estate is funnier.


• The 2004 A's broke the Oakland Athletics record for hits in a season on Monday and currently have 1519. The previous record was set by the 2000 A's with 1501 hits.


• The record for runs is 947 in a season was also set by the 2000 A's. The 2004 A's have just 781 runs for the year.


• The A's will break the Oakland Athletics record for At-bats in a season on Friday, as of last night they have 5572 AB's for the season. The current record was set by the 1996 Oakland Atheltics with 5630.

PITCHY RICH HARDEN'S GAME LOG: 2004

DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	GSc	DEC	ERA
Apr. 20	@SEA	L 2-1	7	3	1	1	1	4	9	6	6	109	27	72	-	5.73
Apr. 25	ANA	L 4-3	5.2	6	4	3	1	2	4	11	6	100	27	45	L(0-2)	5.40
Totals			16.2	20	11	10	2	7	19	21	14	283	76	--	0-2	5.40
DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	GSc	DEC	ERA
May. 1	@TB	W 6-5	6	6	1	1	0	2	4	7	11	100	26	58	-	4.37
May. 6	NYY	W 7-4	7.2	6	4	4	0	5	9	11	5	121	34	55	W(1-2)	4.45
May. 12	@DET	W 2-1	7	7	1	1	0	3	8	4	7	99	29	64	W(2-2)	3.86
May. 18	DET	L 5-1	6	6	3	3	1	3	2	4	11	105	26	47	L(2-3)	3.95
May. 23	KC	W 3-2	6	8	2	2	1	1	6	11	6	95	26	53	-	3.83
May. 29	@CLE	L 8-6	5	2	5	3	0	6	4	8	5	98	23	45	-	3.98
Monthly Totals			37.2	35	16	14	2	20	33	45	45	618	164	--	2-1	3.35
DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	GSc	DEC	ERA
Jun. 4	TOR	L 6-1	7	4	1	1	0	3	7	9	3	103	26	69	-	3.67
Jun. 9	CIN	W 17-8	5.1	6	5	4	0	3	8	7	4	106	27	43	W(3-3)	3.92
Jun. 16	@STL	L 6-2	6.1	6	3	3	1	2	7	9	7	98	27	54	L(3-4)	3.95
Jun. 21	@ANA	L 10-3	5.1	8	5	5	0	2	4	8	9	104	26	34	L(3-5)	4.25
Jun. 26	SF	W 8-7	2.1	1	1	0	0	1	3	2	4	35	10	55	-	4.13
Monthly Totals			26.1	25	15	13	1	11	29	35	27	446	116	--	1-2	4.44
DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	GSc	DEC	ERA
Jul. 3	@SF	W 6-2	6	2	2	2	0	4	3	7	7	90	23	59	-	4.05
Jul. 8	@BOS	L 8-7	5	7	7	7	2	6	7	7	7	114	27	26	-	4.52
Jul. 15	CWS	W 4-2	8	4	2	2	1	1	3	13	6	95	27	68	W(4-5)	4.33
Jul. 20	TOR	W 1-0	8.2	2	0	0	0	3	8	7	9	125	32	85	-	3.99
Jul. 25	TEX	W 9-2	5	2	2	2	1	5	4	4	7	119	22	54	W(5-5)	3.97
Jul. 30	@TEX	L 7-5	6	5	2	2	0	2	5	10	5	96	26	57	-	3.92
Monthly Totals			38.2	22	15	15	4	21	30	48	41	639	157	--	2-0	3.49
DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	GSc	DEC	ERA
Aug. 4	@NYY	L 8-6	6.1	10	4	4	1	1	4	11	10	92	30	40	-	4.01
Aug. 9	@MIN	W 8-2	6.2	7	2	2	1	4	2	11	8	114	29	50	W(6-5)	3.95
Aug. 14	KC	W 6-1	6	5	1	1	0	4	5	7	7	112	25	59	W(7-5)	3.84
Aug. 20	@TB	W 9-5	5.1	7	5	5	3	2	6	7	7	90	24	38	W(8-5)	4.01
Aug. 25	BAL	W 3-0	8	4	0	0	0	1	5	6	11	111	28	78	-	3.80
Aug. 31	@CWS	W 7-2	7	4	1	1	0	0	5	7	6	102	24	70	W(9-5)	3.69
Monthly Totals			39.1	37	13	13	5	12	27	49	49	621	160	--	4-0	2.97
DATE	OPP	RESULT	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	GSc	DEC	ERA
Sep. 5	@TOR	L 13-5	4.1	7	7	7	1	2	1	8	7	95	24	20	L(9-6)	3.98
Sep. 11	CLE	W 5-4	6	7	4	4	1	2	7	7	4	110	23	47	-	4.05
Sep. 16	TEX	W 5-4	6.1	6	4	3	0	1	7	7	9	109	26	53	W(10-6)	4.06
Sep. 24	@ANA	W 6-3	7	4	2	2	0	3	6	8	6	111	27	64	W(11-6)	4.00
Monthly Totals			23.2	24	17	16	2	8	21	30	26	425	100	--	2-1	6.08
			IP	H	R	ER	HR	B	SO	GB	FB	PIT	BF	AGS	W-L	ERA
Totals			182.1	163	87	81	16	79	159	228	202	3032	773	53	11-6	4.00

28 September 2004



To Whom It May Concern:

I hereby resign my position as Programmer III in the Information Services Department Customer Support Center at ** ***** ****** *****, formerly called as the Help Desk - but known in the user community as the "NO-HELP Desk".

This resignation is effective immediately.

I leave this unit to pursue a position in which I get paid a considerable amount of money more than you and a really nice title.

Perhaps the purpose of your life is only to serve as a warning to others. My purpose in life is to afford you endless torture as I endured in my 15 months under your 'leadership'.

I leave here with my head held high, a skip in my step and amazingly without a trail of bodies left in my wake only by the grace of a whisper of what is left of my humanity. The satisfaction of knowing you will live a lonely, miserable life comforts me in this time of transition.

Please feel free to resign from this position at your earliest convenience. As, I no longer work in the Customer Support Unit I am no longer bound by the agreement I signed when I took the position to not file a lawsuit against management.

The gentleman who just handed you this letter is my attorney and the man next to him is serving you with papers informing you of the Federal Lawsuit I have filed on the grounds of discrimination, harassment, fraud, abuse, libel, and slander and for generally being an incompetent jerk. Security is waiting outside to seize your computer and your email account has been frozen.

The Human Resources Department is awaiting your company just now in a meeting I scheduled for you after you have received this letter. A representative is waiting for you in the lobby. It might be a good idea to pack up your personal effects and don't forget your i.d. badge. My guess is; you will not be returning.

Sometimes good things happen to good people and for once, those good people happen to be me.

Have a nice day and GO A's,



Zachary D Manprin
Luckiest Bastard on Earth

I am currently interviewing Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus and author of Saving the Pitcher in regards to Mark Mulder.

The interview will be here shortly. The interview is posted below.

It's rather a brief as Will is busy and I don't like to waste time. Will's answering right now and once he gives the 'okay' I'll post.

BACK AND FORTH: with WILL CARROLL

With Mark Mulder's hip/leg/lower middle section injury last season there was a lot of speculation about his health coming into 2004. There were rumors about Mulder being treated with an experimental pharmaceutical, to hip Bo Jackson-like hip replacement, even more serious references to Timm Rosenbach/Neil Lomax-type hip injuries and even the extreme notion the A's were trying to save Mulder's leg in lieu of amputation.

Prior to the All-Star Break it was kind of funny to think how silly some of the rumors were.

It's not that funny right now.

The mark Mulder crisis is in its 79th day (Mulder's last "good" start was on July 10th). It is relatively easy to consider the A's not including Mulder on the post-season roster, or even making the post-season at all.

Will Carroll, either sleep deprived or just out-of it agreed to answer some questions this morning on Mark Mulder.

EIO -
In your Under the Knife column on Baseball Prospectus, you have updated us on Mulder's condition several times.

1. BP: UTK Date: 2003-03-28
2. BP: UTK Date: 2003-08-25
3. BP: UTK Date: 2004-02-13
4. BP: UTK Date: 2004-06-09
5. BP: UTK Date: 2004-07-12
6. BP: UTK Date: 2004-07-16
7. BP: UTK Date: 2004-08-30
8. BP: UTK Date: 2004-09-27

But, there always seems to be a general lack of definitive information you are able to get from the Oakland A's Staff.

Will - getting information out of the A's is like:


1. Pulling teeth
2. Pulling your teeth with someone else's feet and a rubber hose
3. Having your teeth knocked out
4. Quite easy and always very informative

COFFEE JUNKIE, WILL CARROLL -
It's not the easiest thing in the world, that's for sure. Mostly, the A's are very disciplined and "on message." They'll tell what they think you ought to know and nothing more. It's often information without context. I'm not sure if it's good or bad to have an organization that is so tightly controlled, but there are certainly advantages. I guess it's just a challenge for me.

EIO -
What information have you been able to extract from the Oakland A's on Mark Mulder apart from their generic player injury status statement; "he's fine..."?

BLOGIST, WILL CARROLL -
I don't have any information beyond that from the A's. I've spoken with some people and it's easy to tell they're concerned. Actually, Mulder's public statements have been far more forthcoming.

EIO -
Combining that information with what you can assess with video, statistical analysis, charting pitches, rumors, innuendo, gut feeling and watching Mulder live - what can you deduce about his physical status?

AUTHOR, WILL CARROLL -
Mulder appears to be off mechanically. He has such a smooth delivery that it has been easy to detect the differences. Using the miracle of MLB.tv, I can definitely see that his arm has dropped. He's always had the ability to change the angle of his delivery; now he's consistently down with his upper arm parallel to his shoulder line. His body seems angled, his hips come through late, and his stride seems changed. It's the type of thing Rick Peterson would have corrected.

EIO -
Let me take you down a road for a second before I get to the next question. Peter Gammons of ESPN has said recently that Mulder is "hurt" (paraphrasing) and Tim Kurkjian of ESPN has countered "there is something wrong" (again paraphrasing) with Mulder on different episodes of Baseball Tonight. While we, the common fan, don't know if Mulder is "hurt", we can certainly observe that "there is something wrong" with Mark Mulder. Let's get some working definitions; what does 'injured' mean and what is an 'injury'?

ALL AROUND SWELL GUY, WILL CARROLL -
Injured means that a player is suffering from a specific injury or condition. An injury is some discreet condition or series of conditions that have both a causation and a prognosis. "Dead arm" is not an injury; it's a symptom. "Torn labrum" - now that's an injury. I'm not sure that Mulder is injured as much as he's off mechanically.

EIO -
There has been some speculation that Mulder's poor performance since July, for the lack of a better term, is a "mental" issue. If it is "mental", can't we assume that it is an injury, or at the very least, the lingering effects of a previous injury?

Example:
If player A if physically unable to perform because of a confidence problem or psychosomatic episode or even hesitancy in a specific act (swinging, throwing, pitching) due to priory injury - doesn't that boil down to an 'injury'? The brain is still part of the body, isn't it?

INJURY GURU, WILL CARROLL -
Certainly. We saw that with Johan Santana early in the season. He was scared to fully extend his surgically repaired elbow. The surgery he had was as minor as a pitcher can have, but once he got over that fear, well, we all know the results. Sometimes it's as simple as "it hurts when I do this" and a pitcher stops doing that. Sometimes it's pain, sometimes it's results.

EIO -
I have been rather unpleasantly surprised by Curt Young, the Oakland A's pitching coach this season. Barry Zito struggled for far too long, at this point in the season Mark Redman would be better left pitching outside of the Network Associates Coliseum and Mulder's struggles are getting to be considered good content for Leonard Nimoy to go "In Search of". Throw in the bullpen and the litany of problems therein for good measure. I can go to the statistics and be justified. The A's are almost a half a run worse in team ERA in 2004 (4.14) than they were in 2003 (3.63) and 2002 (3.68). But, I have a nagging feeling that some of the distaste I have for Curt Young's laissez-faire methods is simply a reaction from having been witness to Rick Peterson over the last few years. Many have labeled Peterson a micro-manager. At this point, though, weighing Young's results against Peterson's - can't we just call Peterson's efforts justified?

PUNDIT, WILL CARROLL -
One certainly has to look at the results. Pitching coaches often have a certain type of player that they seem to work well with. Dave Duncan can remake a talented older pitcher like Woody Williams or Chris Carpenter, but you don't want him around the young guys like Matt Morris. Young seems to have done very well with Rich Harden, so maybe that's his niche.

EIO -
I'm putting you on the spot, but I don't care: would the 'pitcher's plague' that has struck the A's in the last nine months have occurred under Rick Peterson's watch?

DEMAGOGUE-IN-TRAINING, WILL CARROLL -
Rick isn't God. He's just a very good pitching coach with a lot of research. We all have certain types of people we like to be around. We have bosses we like and bosses we don't and it's often just style. The A's still have a real advantage because they keep their pitchers healthy. Until they "come back to the pack" and rack up frequent surgery points like the rest of baseball, I'm not going to condemn Young. I'd just watch the results - which I'll do in Under The Knife.


Will was thanked a ton and if he thinks he's getting special stuff for sitting down for the interview, he's got another thing coming.

If you can stand a blog that has some to do with baseball and other stuff - you should head to Will Carroll Presents. There you can buy his book, ask him to autograph it (have him to sign it to 'Happy Ebay bidder'), find more baseball links, read some interesting posts and hang out in the coment vault with some interesting people and some very impotent people. No, there's no 'r' missing. And don't miss BP Radio.
It's more fun than something that is fun but requires reading and stuff.

ENERGY IS WHAT BATTLE DEPENDS ON.
The Art of War

Here we all sit. Together, with dry, gaping maws.

• How could things have gone this badly?


• Where is the resolve?


• How can I show my faith when it is constantly ripped from my chest?


• Is this the end of the A's run?

And here are a few questions directed at readers; When did it finally hit you that something was wrong?

• When the Rangers started printing and selling playoff tickets last week?


• When the Angels started printing and selling playoff tickets last week?


• When the Marks (Redman, Mulder, heck, throw in McLemore) started to unravel?


• During one of the first half sweeps (Anaheim, New York, Cleveland, St. Louis, Boston)?


• During one of the second half sweeps (Seattle, Boston, Texas)?


• When Arthur Rhodes was signed?


• When Arthur Rhodes was pitching?


• When the A's couldn't trade Arthur Rhodes because he was 'hurt'?


• When the A's made a trade involving Carlos Beltran - only to get Octavio Dotel in return?

WHAT SAY YOU

SO IT IS THAT GOOD WARRIORS TAKE THEIR STAND ON GROUND WHERE THEY CANNOT LOSE, AND DO NOT OVERLOOK CONDITIONS THAT MAKE AN OPPONENT PRONE TO DEFEAT.
The Art of War

Stupid Rally Monkey. (click me)

You damn dirty apes. (click me, too)

There has to be an eventual end to sports clichés...particularly in sports. There just has to be an end.

"Sometimes you just have to tip your cap."- A's Starter Mark Redman

I'm still searching for the quote in today's media sources about how the starter thought he "pitched a good game but made a mistake with one or two pitches" and it cost him. It's got to be in there somewheres, I tells ya'.

The A's lost on Saturday afternoon because they did not play good baseball. They were not sound in the field (2 Errors), on the base paths (Kotsay ran into an out after Skootch doubled), at the plate (5 hits/2 walks - 142 pitches seen with no base runners after the 6th inning) or on the mound (8 hits/5 walks - bullpen decisions lead to implosion). It was a failure on all fronts. And yet, they only lost 5-3. Which is telling of how bad Anaheim is playing right now.

Apparently it doesn't really affect the A's as they are trying to stay loose, have fun and be casual about the situation.

"We're still in first place. We need to be loose. We need to have fun. This is the time to have fun. We're not chasing anyone. They're chasing us."- A's Starter Mark Redman

"I'm confident in this team closing it out. We're trying not to take these losses to heart. There's no pressure in here. It's not life or death that we're talking about. We're dealing with a game."- A's 'leader' Eric Chavez

Huh.

Maybe, just maybe, if the A's weren't so damn confident and content they might be playing better baseball. Ken Macha must be feeding the A's off their laurels because this team does not look or sound hungry in the least bit.

There just has to be an end to the clichés.

GOOD THINKING, NO THINKING

"I think we need to make him throw strikes. Of the first four batters he faced -- I was keeping track -- he threw only two strikes. The rest were out of the zone. You're in for a tough at-bat either way. If he makes a good pitch, you're not going to hit it."- A's 'leader' Eric Chavez

"He has one of the best sliders in the game and an explosive fastball. If he makes his pitches, he has a good shot. You have to manufacture a run against those two guys."- A's Centerfielder Mark Kotsay

Okay. This is just dumb all around.

Chavez has faced Francisco Rodriguez several times and F-Rod has been in the league since the tail end of 2002. There should not be a whole lot of 'thinking' going on. The A's should have a game plan in place for facing the Anaheim bullpen instead of one guy going with a patient approach and another trying to 'manufacture' runs.

Hey, do you think those heavy manufacturing of runs jobs have been out-sourced? Do players who manufacture jobs have to wear steel-toed boots?

What do the A's do during their 'down time'? Are they not going over scouting reports and watching videotape of their opponents? Is it any wonder this team can't get on the same page?

A general response to reader mail in no particular order and with really bad grammar;
BECAUSE YOU SHOULD NEVER BUNT NO MATTER HOW MANY MORONIC SPORTSWRITERS AND JOE MORGANS SAY YOU SHOULD.

The above was mentioned in a post a few days ago. Some readers responded by mentioning situations when they felt it is okay to bunt. Some even produced Game 1 of the 2003 ALDS when Ramon Hernandez bunted as an example.

The following is blatantly and wholly lifted from the paperback version of Moneyball by Michael Lewis. The passage is taken from page 299 of the AFTERWARD.

(begin lifting of material)
"Ramon Hernandez bunted.



The A's had won the first game of the Red Sox series when their molasses-footed catcher, with two outs, dropped a bunt down the third base line. The act itself triggered a chemical reaction in the minds of Club members.



Moneyball teams don't bunt! These . . . little nerds all say that smart managers don't trade outs for bases. Ha! Look! Okay, they won. But, they've proven our point!



Never mind the absurdity of attributing the outcome of a game to the single event. Never mind that a single exception does no harm to the larger argument: that over the long haul it's a mistake to give away outs for bases. Never mind that the dislike of the sacrifice bunt is a trivial sliver of the new approach to baseball. It wasn't a sacrifice bunt. There were two outs! Ramon Hernandez wasn't trying to trade a base hit for an out. He was bunting for a base hit."
(end lifting of material)

I suppose I could have just presented the play-by-play and mentioned that there were two outs when Hernandez dropped the bat down, but it seemed like an easy enough way to work in the note that Lewis has an afterward available in the paperback. You can buy it...or you can deprive the man of residuals by reading it in a Barnes y Noblet (or you can ask me to email you the PDF version!).

THEN

From the same post there were several mentions in regards to .091405, KEN MACHA'S MARGIN FOR ERROR.

Succinctly, it's a notion that Ken Macha has less than a tenth of a run to play with when making decisions that decide a game. Since that post, the margin of error has been updated to .072552 (3.53409090_ more runs in their wins against 3.46153846 runs in their losses).

Is it really true that the A's win or lose by 7 hundredths of a run? No. But it sure as hell feels that way.

And note, this stat was just made up of runs scored, not of runs allowed so it had nothing to do with the pitching staff or necessarily the offense. It was a simple matter of looking at how many MOREruns the A's score when they win against the number of runs they are beaten by when they lose. They have scored 311 more runs in their wins and 225 in their losses. From the 311 runs less the 88 wins (the A's, like most teams, need one more run than the opponent to 'win'), the A's have scored 223 extra runs and 165 fewer runs in their losses.

Does this stat hold any water? I don't know, because I'm too lazy to spend the 25 minutes per team entering the data into a spreadsheet. And I forgot more than I learned about statistical variances to write a script or plot a graph. But, if I can bang heads with some of the white coats at UC Berkley I might get an answer.

AND THEN

There are no statistics available to tout, support, or even crucify Eric Chavez in regards to any lifestyle or 'faith' choices he might have made. Though, I can crucify Chavez for his unspectacular performance at the plate and his general lack of 'leadership' (that being said, we can all attack the A's for their poor play over the last few weeks). It's a situation where some point to Chavez' age and give him the benefit of the doubt.

Sorry. That doesn't work anymore.

Regardless of age, Chavez has been in the league for six seasons and has been in the playoffs four times. While his OPS is up, it is largely due to his On Base Percentage. His Slugging Percentage is down as his is his Batting Average. And don't blame his injury, the dip started in 2002.

ERIC CHAVEZ: CAREER STALLING?

Season	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
1998	16	45	6	14	4	1	0	6	3	5	.311	.354	.444	.798
1999	115	356	47	88	21	2	13	50	46	56	.247	.333	.427	.760
2000	153	501	89	139	23	4	26	86	62	94	.277	.355	.495	.850
2001	151	552	91	159	43	0	32	114	41	99	.288	.338	.540	.878
2002	153	585	87	161	31	3	34	109	65	119	.275	.348	.513	.861
2003	156	588	94	166	39	5	29	101	62	89	.282	.350	.514	.864
2004	117	447	85	121	18	0	29	73	91	93	.271	.395	.506	.901
Total	861	3074	499	848	179	15	163	539	370	555	.276	.353	.503	.856
162 AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
5.31	162	578	94	160	34	3	31	101	70	104	.276	.353	.503	.856

Yah, those are very good numbers. But they are not great. They aren't $11 Million a year numbers (unless were are comparing them to Jermaine Dye). But, the kicker has always been his defense.

Eh.

That's an iffy argument unless you can quantify the value of his defense. Only a few people can, including the A's front office and they aren't giving me access to their databases (or the databases Paul De Podesta took with him to Chavez Ravine - no relation).

Here's the bottom line numbers; when it counts:

PLAYOFFS	OPP - W/L	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	NYY - L	5	21	4	7	3	0	0	4	0	5	.333	.333	.476	.809
2001	NYY - L	5	21	0	3	1	0	0	0	0	5	.143	.143	.190	.333
2002	MIN - L	5	21	3	8	0	0	1	5	2	1	.381	.435	.524	.959
2003	BOS - L	5	22	1	1	1	0	0	0	1	3	.045	.087	.091	.178
2004	??? - ?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?	?
Total	0 - 4	20	85	8	19	5	0	1	9	3	14	.224	.250	.318	.568

There's an old argument about "clutch hitting". It's a lame argument. But, there's the question of being, "clutch". That's a lame argument, too. But, in your recent memory, how many times do you recall Eric Chavez wining a game with his heroics at the plate? I recall a win against Seattle a when he hit an opposite field 3 run jimmy-jack (June 20th, 2001). There was a game winning single earlier this month...but think about Jason Giambi, Miguel Tejada, hell, even Scott Hatteberg and Mark Ellis. There were some epic performances by those lads when it counted.

Yes, and some when they didn't come through, too.

Maybe the averages even out in 2004?

They had better.

WHEN PEOPLE DESERVE REWARD, THIS SHOULD BE DULY NOTED EVEN IF YOU PERSONALLY DETEST THEM. WHEN PEOPLE DESERVE PUNISHMENT, THIS SHOULD NOT BE FORGONE EVEN IF THEY ARE CLOSE TO YOU.
The Art of War

Hey, how many people still think that Rich Harden should be the closer?

It's always fun to revisit ridiculous arguments in September...like how important Eric Karros is to the A's or Arthur Rhodes will be a very good closer. Thanks Robert Baun, for being the bootlick/company man you are.

So, Eric Byrnes has been stinking up the A's line-up for a few weeks now. He found himself in the 9th hole against the Anaheim Angels and responded with a 2nd inning strike-out that looked like a genuine attempt to define apathy.

APATHY



• SYLLABICATION: ap·a·thy


• NOUN:
  1. Lack of interest or concern, especially regarding matters of general importance or appeal; indifference.

2. Lack of emotion or feeling; impassiveness.

Then, Byrnes, who has a .446(avg)/.464(obp)/.923(slg) split when putting the first pitch in play smacked a two run homerun to left to put the A's up 5-1 with the first pitch in the 4th inning.

It was Byrnes first RBI in the last 15 games he played and only the 9th run he has scored in September. Byrnes followed up with a double in the 6th and a single in the 7th. Does that mean Byrnes is back?

Ugh.

Who the hell knows.

Byrnes approach at the plate has been so twisted and manipulated over the past 15 months that it is hard to tell if Byrnes even realizes what he is doing at the plate most of the time. Byrnes used to bring 'no concept' to the plate, but that was by choice, i.e. Wait For Pitch to Hit; Hit ball. His patience paid off for him until there was pressure to hit above his weight. Enter tailspin.

Now, with the playoffs looming and Bobby Crosby set to drift in Terrence Long/Ben Grieve territory - Byrnes AB's become more and more important.

In case you missed it, Bobby Crosby set an Oakland A's record for grounding into double plays (GIDP) with his 20th od the season earlier this week. He passed Terrence Long and Ben Grieve for the record, each had 18 GIDP in their rookie campaigns (note: Long struck out 77 times and Grieve struck out 123 times in their rookie seasons). Yah...that's one list you want to be on as an A's rookie. The Oakland A's record for K's as a rookie is held by Jose Canseco. He struck out 175 times in his rookie season. The Oakland A's non-rookie record for most strikeouts in a season - is also the same 175 by Canseco in his rookie season.

Bobby Crosby had an opportunity for the very rare Golden Sombrero when he came to bat in the 9th having gone 0 for 4 with 4 strikeouts last night.

Instead, he took the golden collar and added a pop out to end the night 0 for 5, leaving 6 runners on base.

Can somebody get this guy a day off?

You would figure after some of the defensive miscues over the last week that Bada Bing would have been granted a day to reflect on his rookie season and maybe get Esteban German a start or even Skootch a shot at short. This is one of those open issues that leads to a rambling discourse on Ken Macha's line-up decisions (or questioning if the A's front office has any part of a hand involved with game management - maybe the fist). Why bother calling up the kids from AAA if they are going to simply smell up a jockstrap while riding the pine for three weeks?

• Where the hell is Mike Rose to spell Damian Miller?


• Why can't Dan Johnson hit 2nd in the batting order and be listed at 2nd base on the road, then give way to Skootch or Mark "Knees as Strong as Grated Cheese" McLemore when the A's hit the field?


• Why can't Dan Johnson pinch hit?


• Can Esteban German stand around on the infield for a few innings?


• Where the hell are Bobby Kielty and Billy McMillon?


• Can't Justin Duchscherer and Joe Blanton tandem start a game in lieu of Mark (insert Mulder or Redman here)?


• Why aren't the beat writers asking these questions?

Some might see these as nagging questions or just nagging.

Possibly.

But when Nick Swisher displaced Eric Byrnes out of the line-up when Jermaine Dye came back form his thumb injury, it sent shock waves through the A's system. Not only were Kielty and McMillon dying slow deaths on the bench, it showed how much the A's want to prop up Jermaine Dye for value when it comes to free agent compensation. And, it showed how much faith the A's have in their ability to recognize talent and their concept of player development works.

If not for Swisher's inability to maintain his production suddenly becoming an everyday outfielder in the major leagues, Byrnes may not have been back in the line up for several days. It was very touch-and-go for a few days. Poor play in the outfield and 3 for 13 with 2 walks over his last few games sent Swisher to reign as chair of the River Cats prep committee on the bench with Rose, Johnson and German.

The question still hangs on whether Swisher will make the post-season roster. Will Kielty and McMillon be wearing sweatshirts instead of jerseys and regulated to pom-pom duties?

Dunno.

It would be a big boost for the rest of the A's organization and a beacon to those who are still in the farm system if Nickname Swisher did make the post-season roster. "Hey, if I grow sideburns like Nickname and get on base a whole bunch, I can get up to the big leagues in a hurry and be with the A's during the playoffs".

IT'S BROKEN; FIX IT MACHA

The Scott Hatteberg experiment at the clean-up spot in the batting order is not working.

WHAT ABOUT SCOTT HATTEBERG'S NEEDS

By Batting Order	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Batting #2	3	2	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	.667	.800	.667	1.467
Batting #3	61	7	16	2	0	0	7	9	0	6	0	0	.262	.342	.295	.637
Batting #4	135	22	41	10	0	2	16	11	2	13	0	0	.304	.362	.422	.784
Batting #5	284	52	82	16	0	13	56	40	3	21	0	0	.289	.379	.482	.861
Batting #6	34	4	12	2	0	0	1	6	0	4	0	0	.353	.450	.412	.862
By Day/Month	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Last 7 Days	22	3	2	1	0	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	.091	.231	.136	.367
April	61	10	16	4	0	1	7	10	0	4	0	0	.262	.366	.377	.743
May	89	10	29	5	0	4	14	11	0	6	0	0	.326	.400	.517	.917
June	87	18	29	4	0	5	27	13	0	6	0	0	.333	.400	.552	.952
July	95	16	23	6	0	1	8	11	1	9	0	0	.242	.324	.337	.661
August	105	22	37	5	0	3	19	15	3	10	0	0	.352	.444	.486	.930
September	83	11	20	6	0	1	6	9	1	9	0	0	.241	.323	.349	.672
Pre All-Star	272	43	82	15	0	10	52	38	0	20	0	0	.301	.380	.467	.847
Post All-Star	248	44	72	15	0	5	29	31	5	24	0	0	.290	.379	.411	.790

By looking at the stats you would think that Hatteberg would be a good fit for the #4 spot in the batting order. Try looking at the September stats, specifically what Hatteberg has done the last 7 days. His power has disappeared since the All Star Break, too.

So why does Macha keep him there? Chavez has looked like crap the last few weeks, too. Some have ridiculously pointed at the lack of a right-handed bat in the line-up around Chavez...how does that have an affect on Chavez, but not Erubiel Durazo who batted behind Scott Hatteberg for most of the season? Isn't Macha the manager who sticks Mark McLemore in the #2 spot in the batting order against right-handers - despite there being no statistical evidence to show that it has anything but