SKY: So you're stuck with a store full of nothing. Do I give you a fair rundown?


SISTER SARAH: I wouldn't know. I've never had a rundown.

ED NOTE: I am paraphrazing as much as I can the article on ESPN.com by Rob Neyer. It is ridiculous that a corporation like Disney has a page full of ads, including alcohol ads on their college pages, and annoying pop-ups and still tries to pry money away from you to read decent baseball writing. Joe Morgan and Phil Rogers are free, though.



Rob Neyer's article today on ESPN.com starts with an email from a reader who questions the Esteban Loaiza deal; 3 years $21 Million. The reader suggests that Loaiza is essentially a league average pitcher and when above league average for two seasons, was only slightly better. The only silver lining the reader can find is that Loaiza is an innings eater.

Neyer questions whether Loaiza is a true innings eater and posts a nice table of stats that show Loaiza has only pitched over 200 innings twice in the last five seasons (he has averaged 193 innings the last five years) and his ERA is actually just 3.2 percent better than league average over the last five seasons.

Rob goes off a bit on the whole theory of an 'innings eater' and finally makes two assertions:

• Salaries go up about 10 percent per season.




• MLB is awash in cash right now.

Rob then compares the free agent market to last year when pitchers like Russ Ortiz and Eric Milton set the bar for gauging pitchers in the market. Then, Rob comes back to the A's and the issue of trading Barry Zito.

Rob recommends trading Zito as he is likely to be expensive, Rob projects at least $10 Million a year in his next contract, and the A's will not be able to afford him.

Rob then suggests the A's next move might be to trade Zito for another Danny Haren and a bat and possibly more if a sucker will take "Fairy Dust Saarloos". Rob points out Saarloos' K rate and implies that Saarloos was lucky in 2005 and counting on luck again in 2006 is not a safe bet.

Rob summarizes his article by going North and questioning why J.P. Ricciardi would spend oodles of money on a closer, implying that there are plenty of arms in the organization that can be developed cheaply as a closer.

Basically, that's it. Rob suggests trading Zito, but only if the A's get something substantial in return. Not that the A's are going to trade Zito, just a logical sense it would be a smart move. A's fans should know by now that no player is off limits and anyone can be discussed in a possible trade, as long as there is a feasible offer or discussion of an offer taking place.

Now, let's sidetrack a bit and wonder whom the A's might want in return for Zito. I'd nail it down to a handful of players in the mix and teams that have room to maneuver. Do I think the A's will actually trade Zito for these players? No, but I'd be okay with the return if it comes to pass.

• REDS: Adam Dunn, Homer Baily or David Shafer

Dunn was discussed last year with the Reds for about 12 seconds until the Reds demanded Rich Harden and Zito were in any talks that took place. No question Beane would love a monster OBP like Dunn. Dunn is not happy in Cincinnati and you could think that Dunn's numbers would improve in a positive environment.


• PHILADELPHIA: Pat Burrell or Chase Utley, Scott Mathieson

Burrell strikes out too (160) much but he still produces. He walked 99 times last year and hit 32 HR. Utley would be a nice addition and nice trade bait to someone like the Yankees. Utley scored 93 runs in only 147 games and hit 28 homeruns.


• PIRATES: Zach Duke or Jason Bay, Paul Maholm or Tom Gorzelanny

It doesn't hurt to ask, does it? The Pirates have some pretty good pitching prospects and trading an older Zito for a younger Zito in Maholm or Gorzelanny. Bay is a bit older than you would like, but he gets on base and has power.


• METS: Cash,

The Mets don't have much to speak of in their organization as far as hitters. They already have Freddie Bynum and don't need another. Especially a player who can't control the strike zone and has no idea when it comes to baserunning. They Mets do have good pitching prospects and Omar Minya is willing to throw money at passing cars if he thought he could get the Yankees off the front of the sports page. Imagine what landing Zito would do for Minya's off season already.


• MARLINS: Miguel Cabrera, Yusmeiro Petit, Josh Willingham

Now, if Beane offered Zito and Nick Swisher to snare Cabrera, it would be legendary. Florida is in such upheaval right now, they could make another move to salvage the push for season ticket buyers.


• ASTROS: Lance Berkman, Hunter Pence

The Astros don't scream pitching right now, but for the A's Berkman could be the corner outfielder and switch hitter Nick Swisher never will. If Roger Clemens decides not to come back, the Astros will need a draw. Zito wouldn't be bad.

See? Isn't this fun? Just talking doesn't hurt.

'...and Rob did write, and it was posted to the website, and it was taken with must consideration from those who understand.'

- email from Baseball Blogger to the Corinthians 14:29

Rob Neyer mentioned in a chat on ESPN.com that he has something coming later today on the A's. Of course Rob had something coming from the A's earlier this year and the article was nixed by the A's powers that are.

As many of you know, Rob Neyer's columns are part of the ESPN.com 'insider' subscription package. And hopefully everyone knows how I feel about paying for online content from a multi-billion dollar media corporation. Pay for Baseball Prospectus and Baseball America and purchase their books. Absolutely, and so should you.

Giving more money to the mouse (Disney owns ABC and ABC owns ESPN) is not something I care to do.

So, I'll be copying, pasting and posting the juicy parts for your consideration when I can.

Cease this detestable "boo-hooing" instantly...or else seek the shelter of some other place of worship.

- Professor Henry Higgins

EiO Knee-Jerk response: I don't understand overpaying for Loaiza no when they could have waited and maybe grabbed Scott Elarton, Kevin Millwood or even Matt Morris cheaper or done their homework and grabbed Jason Johnson. As it is, the A's will owe Washington a draft pick in 2006. Speaking of Washington, Loaiza's 2005 home/away splits are a study of contrasts (isn't that what splits are?). But the logic; ' the A's signed Esteban Loaiza, therefore Zito will be traded ' is just asinine.

SPLIT	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	HBP	SO	SB	CS	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS
vs. Left	425	121	26	2	7	34	38	3	88	2	0	.285	.346	.405	.751
vs. Right	415	106	16	0	11	48	17	2	85	2	2	.255	.287	.373	.661
Home	412	96	16	1	9	31	23	1	95	1	0	.233	.275	.342	.617
Away	428	131	26	1	9	51	32	4	78	3	2	.306	.358	.435	.792

In an effort to continually screw up my sequence of posts, Billy Beane has gone out of his way to sign 34 year-old right-handed starter Esteban Loaiza. For the most part under the radar, as it was assumed and supposed by most of the baseball world that the A's were in the market for a DH or a bat in general. For a whopping $21 Million through 2008, the three year deal has a club option (a Beane favorite) for 2009.

Both Susan Slusser and Mychael Urban, who generally are the sore anointers and feet washers of the A's front office, have started their trumpet calls that Zito is now 'unofficially - which means officially' on the trading block heading into the Winter Meetings. As if Beane ever has a player he won't discuss trading. Both Slusser and Urban are also stuck on the right-handed hitter syndrome. The syndrome is caused by listening to old sportswriters who clamor for the days of McGwire, Canseco, Henderson and Steinbach.

The only positive I get out of this transaction, at this point, is being able to talk like Professor Henry Higgins for the rest of the week; Esteban Loaiza Doolittle.

ESTEBAN LOAIZA	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO	WP	BK	h9	hr9	w9	k9	whip
MLB Totals: 11 years	112	99	4.60	334	297	12	5	1,880.00	2110	1037	960	228	539	1255	30	8	10.1	1.09	2.58	6.01	1.41
Minor League Totals: 7 years	41	27	3.52	113	110	12	1	656.1	643	297	257	0	195	474	?	?	8.82	?	2.67	6.50	1.28
MLB Average: 11 years	10	9	4.60	30	27	1	0	170	191	94	87	20	49	114	3	0	10.1	1.09	2.58	6.01	1.41

WHY CAN'T THE ENGLISH?

The first thought was; didn't Billy Beane learn his lesson with Mark Redman? That's the most recent pitcher the A's acquired and signed to a multi-year deal. Meaning the player was not brought up through the A's system. And the A's ended up flushing Redman and Arthur Rhodes at the end of 2004. But, here's a chore for you A's fans to get after - who was the last A's pitcher signed as free agent to make more than 20 starts in a season for Oakland?

The second thing I thought was; is someone asleep at the wheel?

The A's signed three right-handed pitchers in the last few weeks; Jay Witasick, Matt Roney and now Loaiza. Before that they signed Jay Payton to a head scratching deal, which at least two people pointed out, was not a bad deal for a 4th outfielder. Except Payton is the starting left fielder. At least Roney was a $340,000 deal. It was not announced if the deal was a major league deal or a minor league deal. Witasick's deal looked like one of a wave of the hand, 'just sign him so I don't have to worry about it' type of deal. I don't want to imply laziness or a lack of focus, but usually there is some hand-wringing for every dollar the A's spend in the off-season.

The A's are not crying poor as much as they used to and they certainly have stopped being frugal. You have to start wondering if the concept of the A's front office - finding market inefficiencies and exploiting them, was a lot of noise. That the ingenuity and fever at which the A's played the game off the field has slipped and possibly been lost.

The latter is what most thought last year, and then Beane smacked every GM in the mouth at the Winter Meetings. Still, A's fans should take note that the howl of the owner's whine has switched from 'no money to compete' to 'give me money so I can make even more money' with the change in ownership.

The rising issue is now - weren't the A's supposed to overpay for a hitter rather than a pitcher? Isn't it their offense that stinks on ice? Weren't names like Frank Thomas and Mike Piazza being bandied about? Thomas could provide sportswriters with fodder and DH while Mike Piazza could help the A's in two areas; DH and get Jason Kendall out of the lineup every 5 or 6 days.

The only question now is; how many questions get asked and not answered over the next few days?

Why would the A's deal Barry Zito, the one player the A's have with a national media cache?

If the A's end up trading players not named Zito, who might they be? Joe Blanton? Kirk Saarloos? Nick Swisher? Joe Kennedy? Jay Payton? Marco Scutaro?

Would the A's dip into their bag of prospects and deal Andre Ethier or Dallas Braden this early?

The biggest issue I see is what the A's could get for Barry Zito with only one year left on his deal. Beane was able to snare Zito when he was younger as Zito was a fairly centered guy. Unless the A's are able to grab Miguel Cabrera, Adam Dunn, Lance Berkman or an upper tier young hitter for Zito, I don't think Zito is dealt.

What I do see is Beane playing Zito off on a combination of other players like Swisher and Saarloos to get a bat. And for the umpteenth time, he doesn't have to hit right-handed. Production is production. Honestly, if the A's could unfreeze Ted Williams and reheat him to his 1941 season, people like Slusser and Urban would bitch that 'he hits lefty'. It's all they know how to write about.

The Loaiza signing is not the end of the world. But it is a sign that there is more money in the A's war chest than rumored under Schott y Hoffman. Though it is very, very true that when the A's do not make the playoffs, they cost themselves millions of dollars. Not a few million, either.

The market has definitely shifted, though, the game has changed. If the Oakland A's are signing free agent starting pitching and overpaying to do it, someone has something up their sleeves.

2005 DRAFT UPDATE

Q & A WITH JIM CALLIS OF BASEBALL AMERICA

Jim Callis is everywhere it seems at Baseball America. Jim recently updated and reviewed the A's 2005 draft at Baseball America. So who better to update us on Oakland A's baseball? Jim let me bother him a bit for a quick Q & A.

     How high does Travis Buck rate as a hitter to other hitters in the organization right now, and how high does he rate over the last few drafts?

     As far as a pure hitter, Buck would be up there with Daric Barton in the system and is probably the best the A's have drafted in recent years. There is question as to how much power he'll develop--which is why the A's were able to get him where they did--but little question that he'll hit.

     The A's have a knack for drafting and developing players that don't appear to have 30-35 homerun power. Is this organizational weakness due to the approach by the front office; power is over-priced and better acquired later via trades?

    Perhaps. But honestly, in a given draft, there are only a handful of players you'd project to hit 30-35 homers when they hit their prime in the majors. The A's usually don't draft high and rarely have a crack at them. My guess would be they're not avoiding power hitters so much as they'd rather take gifted hitters and hope the power will develop.

     The A's picked up a lot of High School arms and several college pitchers ended up as relievers (Brad Kilby (San Jose State), Jason Ray (Azusa Pacific) , Brad Davis (Lewis-Clark State), Jimmy Shull (Cal Poly-SLO). Was this more of an attempt to limit pitch counts and innings pitched, or are the A's looking to target some of the draft picks as relievers?

    I wouldn't read too much into how guys were used in their first pro summer, though most of those guys do project as relievers. Teams don't draft so much for roles as they search for quality arms and figure they'll determine their role with their performance.

     A lot of people, including myself, were up in arms about the A's drafting High School pitchers. An explanation arose later, along the lines of 'there was inefficiency in the market and the A's exploited it'. While other teams loaded up on college pitchers that may have been borderline, the A's took some chances. Is this explanation about the A's draft accurate or are the A's shifting focus?

    I'm sorry, I don't buy that explanation at all. "Moneyball" aside, I've done research and others have done research that shows that high school pitching isn't nearly as risky as Michael Lewis or others would have you believe. There was no great inefficiency in the 2005 market. The A's don't have many quality arms in their system, and they couldn't afford to ignore the high school pitching prospects any longer. I don't think they found any great inefficiency so much as they corrected a mistake. At the same time, I don't think they shifted their focus to high schoolers. They simply took who they thought were the best arms available when they picked, and those guys happened to be high schoolers. They still prefer college players.

     I had asked Kevin Goldstein if Justin Smoak was the one that got away and he thought the A's took a chance they could sign him as a later round pick (yes, that's a paraphrase). As an approach to a draft, why would the A's look at drafting a 1st baseman, and then a 1st baseman they more than likely would not be able to sign...also, a high schooler? Was this a gamble or a possible mistake?

    A gamble worth taking. Smoak is a switch-hitter with that 30-35 homer power you were mentioning earlier, and he would have gone in the top three rounds based solely on talent. The A's spent a 16th-round pick, on which the usual return is minimal, to try to sign him. Teams should do that more often in the later rounds.

     Now, speaking of signing a player, how long do teams have to sign a player before they are able to re-enter the draft pool? Can we expect the A's to sign any of the players they drafted?

    Teams lose the rights to players attending four-year schools once they attend their first class (usually in the fall). Players attending junior colleges can still sign after their juco season ends, up until a week before the next draft. The A's may sign a couple of guys in that category, but they usually aren't too active in the draft-and-follow market.

     Will we ever see a NFL-like combine for players in baseball, or are the logistics just impossible?

    It's being talking about as part of MLB's suggested overhaul of the draft and player development, but who knows if that will come to pass. I don't think a combine would necessarily help a lot, and I'd bet a lot of the top guys would decline to attend.

     Let's skip to Clifton Pennington. There were some opinions by scouts that Pennington might move to 2nd base as he progressed. Some are adamant that he's a shortstop. Where do you fall in this debate? Do the inklings of a move have anything to do with Bobby Crosby, or not moving, a notice that the A's might sign Mark Ellis?.

    He definitely can play shortstop. He's one of my favorite minor league prospects. Where he plays in the majors depends on whether or not he's a better shortstop than Crosby when he gets there. I think you'll see him in Oakland pretty quick.

     Speaking of middle infielders, Omar Quintanilla was also a shortstop the A's were rumored to consider moving to second base and they ended up Jose Ortiz'ing him to Colorado. Quintanilla and Andre Ethier, looking at their numbers and approach at the plate don't seem to be players in the A's mold. Though, Ethier walked a lot more than usual in the Arizona Fall League. Is there a question here? Do the A's occasionally draft players they really have no intention of ever reaching the major leagues with the organization, but rather trade them off as prospects as they move up the ladder?

    The A's aren't shy about using draftees as trade bait, but I doubt they really take many (if any) players they don't like but figure they could trade. Not every player fits the same mold, which is why you see a diverse array of talents drafted.

     With Huston Street making the jump so soon the major leagues, how irrational do you think A's fans will be with future draft picks, like Pennington and Buck?

    Oh, probably pretty irrational, but I think fans of every team are like that, thinking their prospects are the best and they'll be in the majors tomorrow. But Pennington and Buck should make it up the ladder pretty quick, probably getting their first taste of the majors by the end of 2007.

 

Jim was thanked and hopefully I can get him to answer some questions about the Pacific Coast League and Midwest League next week.