Do re me fa so la si
Do si la sol fa mi re do


Squeeze her once, when she isn't lookin'
If you get a squeeze back that's fancy cookin'
Once more for a pepper-upper
She will never get sore on her way to supper


Do re me fa sol la si
Do si do

THE MUSIC MAN




Mark Ellis avoided arbitration by agreeing to a two-year deal worth $6 Million and the ever present Billy Beane paperclip; an option for an additional year at $5 Million. There is also a $250,000 buyout following 2007. Ellis will make $2.25 million in 2006 and $3.5 million in 2007.

Signing Ellis should come as no surprise. Ellis was to be the A's 2nd baseman this season barring any miracle trades or Bobby Crosby running down Ellis in the parking lot in Arizona next month. The second year of the deal ensures the A's have no question marks up the middle for the next 15-18 months. Why not the next two seasons?

This seems to be an area of a lot of confusion among A's fans. Apparently some have not received the memo that

A

There is turnover from year to year on all MLB team's rosters

B

Billy Beane trades and acquires players to keep the A's competitive

C

Many, but not all, players do not play out their multi-year contracts with the A's

D

The above are constant and will not change to meet the fan's eye view of the A's

As an A's fan you cannot, CAN NOT, CAN NOT confine yourself to the idea that any A's player is untouchable or not replaceable. Some just need to take a stroll down the transaction lists of the past ten years and see that to be true. The mistake is that some fans see only what is immediately in front of them and cannot see the warning track for the infield. There is a bigger picture constantly involved with the A's organization, yet fans mysteriously feel that the Opening Day Roster for 2004 will be pretty much the same for 2005. And the players will all perform better and get younger and the bathrooms at the Coliseum will smell better and be cleaner with each visit.


There are two players in the A's organization that are in line to be ready for a 2007 call-up or at least ready for the 2008 season.

Last year's first round pick, Clifton Pennington (SS) and 5th round pick of 2004, Ken Melillo (2B).

CLIFFTON PENNINGTON

POSITION:	SS
BORN:	June 15, 1984	PLACE:	Corpus Christi, Texas
HEIGHT:	5-11	WEIGHT:	175
BATS:	Both	THROWS:	Right
HIGH SCHOOL:	Carroll High School (Corpus Christi, TX)
COLLEGE:	Texas A&M
DRAFTED:	Selected 1st round (21st overall) of 2005

Year	TEAM	League	Age	Org.	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2003	Texas A&M	NCAA	19		NCAA	63	241	54	82	14	2	2	41	12	2	22	27	0		2	2	8	.340	.392	.440	.832
2004	Texas A&M	NCAA	20		NCAA	63	257	60	87	7	4	5	35	12	3	33	18	0		4	3	6	.339	.410	.455	.865
2005	Texas A&M	NCAA	21		NCAA	56	212	44	77	13	4	7	39	29	9	37	25	1		2	4	1	.363	.453	.561	1.014
2005	Kane County	Midw	21	OAK	A	69	290	49	80	15	0	3	29	25	6	39	47	2	0	2	1	4	.276	.364	.359	.723
Minor League Totals: 1 years						69	290	49	80	15	0	3	29	25	6	39	47	2	0	2	1	4	.276	.364	.359	.723

KEVIN MELILLO

POSITION:	2B
BORN:	May 14, 1982	PLACE:	Orlando,Florida
HEIGHT:	6-0	WEIGHT:	190
BATS:	Left	THROWS:	Right
HIGH SCHOOL:	Lake Brantley High School (Altamonte Springs,FL)
COLLEGE:	University of South Carolina
DRAFTED:	Selected 5th round (157th overall) of 2004

Year	TEAM	League	Age	Org.	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	SF	DP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2002	S. Carolina	NCAA	20		NCAA	58	157	36	44	12	0	3	15	4	1	24	20	3		7	0	0	.280	.386	.414	.800
2003	S. Carolina	NCAA	21		NCAA	65	227	59	72	16	0	12	43	6	3	41	54	1		9	4	1	.317	.418	.546	.964
2004	S. Carolina	NCAA	22		NCAA	54	176	45	54	7	1	9	36	4	0	13	38	2		10	4	1	.307	.354	.511	.865
2004	Vancouver	Nwest	22	OAK	A	22	94	22	32	11	2	2	21	2	1	11	16	3	0	0	1	1	.340	.422	.564	.986
2005	Stockton	Calif	23	OAK	A	22	90	21	36	7	1	9	23	2	0	12	18	1	0	0	1	2	.400	.471	.800	1.271
2005	Kane County	Midw	23	OAK	A	78	280	47	80	18	3	8	36	10	4	53	40	3	1	1	5	5	.286	.399	.457	.856
2005	Midland	Tex	23	OAK	AA	35	131	33	37	10	0	7	34	9	2	14	23	0	1	0	2	4	.282	.347	.519	.866
Minor League Totals: 2 years						157	595	123	185	46	6	26	114	23	7	90	97	7	2	1	9	12	.311	.402	.539	.941

Pennington projects, in some eyes, as a leadoff hitter. Melillo as a number two or 5-7 hole hitter. Pennington plays shortstop and Melillo 2nd base. Melillo will most likely be ready for the big leagues before Pennington. After last year's draft most had Pennington eventually moving to second base if the A's retained Bobby Crosby.

So, we've come to another situation where two players currently on the roster have prospects coming up behind them. One will be gone, most likely, in 2008. Maybe even sooner. The two players have contracts that could reach into 2008...hence, the option for 2008 with Mark Ellis.

Of course for the next 15-18 months I'll receive even more hate email. Then when a transaction occurs where Ellis or Crosby leaves the A's nobody will offer an apology. Or when Swisher leaves the A's. That's fine. I just wish that reality didn't have to be visited upon so many, so often. This is why I always say that being a fan of the team means you root for laundry. You root for the name on the front of the jersey, not the name player on the back of the jersey.



The addition of Frank Thomas has people bringing out their calculators and projecting stats clearly not based on any relative information or reality itself.

Beane said there is a good chance that Thomas will be ready by April, "and that's being conservative," he said.
San Francisco Chronicle

"We're not pushing him to be out there on Opening Day," Beane said. "But if you were to ask Frank ... "
Sacramento Bee

Here is the kicker, the point, the reason, the thing...this is why sportswriters hold such a low opinion in my view. Nobody has been able to get Billy Beane or Arn Tellem (and what agent would say his client is physically unable to play?) to publicly state, 'Frank Thomas has been physically cleared to play baseball by a qualified physician and had passed the mandatory physical requirements as set by the Oakland Athletics Baseball Club.'

That included having Thomas come to Oakland early last week to be checked out by the A's doctor and trainers.


"He underwent a number of stress tests, very strenuous, and Frank felt great," Beane said. "He has a very good chance of being ready in April. He believes he'll be ready in Spring Training, we're just taking a conservative approach mentally."
MLB.com

Further, none of them have written anything on the subject of being unable to get Beane or anyone with the A's to offer some validation of Thomas' physical state. They took Beane, Tellem and Thomas' evasive answers as gospel and left it at that. So much for investigative reporting. Exactly which 'stress tests' did the A's physician perform? If Thomas can not run, let a lone jog or take batting proactive, less than a month prior the mandatory reporting date for position players, who in their right mid would even CONSIDER Thomas a possibility for Opening Day, let alone April or even May/

Joe Sheehan of BASEBALL PROSPECTUS offered some insight and suggested Thomas be focused on having him ready for the postseason a la Christina Kahrl's thought on the Yankees dynasty.

That he remained unsigned so deep into this winter, and comes so cheaply--$500,000 guaranteed on a deal that maxes out at $3.1 million--is testament to the uncertainty surrounding his health.
Joe Sheehan, Baseball Prospectus

There is this old man who spent so much of his life sleeping that he is able to keep awake for the rest of his years -
He resides on a beach in a town where I am going to live and I often ask him -
"Are you looking for the mother lode?"
"Huh? No. No my child, this is not my desire" and then he said "I'm digging for fire."


The Pixies




I usually respond to email on an individual basis, but honestly I don't have time right now. Not only has my trip to Arizona for Spring Training been scuttled by my boss, my vacation as a whole has been wiped out. Under the guise of "other duties as assigned" my agreed time off vanished. Take note; don't work hard, don't go the extra mile. Sure, it's great job security when a project relies solely on you at times. But it also means you are required at times to work even harder, more and go further than the extra mile.

Elephants in Oakland has been put on a back burner so deep I sometimes wonder if I shouldn't just switch to Podcasts and record as I have a few minutes in between meetings, driving to class or even in the bathroom (don't laugh, I read the entire Fletch series and re-read the last two Baseball Prospectus annuals and Baseball America Top Prospects in three months after the 2005 season).

Let's skip to relative issues.

I try to reach a broad spectrum of people, particularly A's fans. I don't try to increase hits and I don't advertise this blog, that's not what this is about. This is not a commercial site and I have no plans on making it one. I don't do interviews unless you are going to learn something from them. In posts I ask questions. I propose concepts. I ask readers to think for themselves. I sometimes 'dumb' things down so that people new to baseball in general can catch on to stats and other terms (want to know how many people have emailed me on what 'OBP' stands for?). I originally started this blog as a way to explain baseball to my roommate. Also to remember what actually happened with a game or with the A's in general. Why? Because sportswriters, particularly those who work for newspapers don't 'get it'. TV talking heads and 'analysts' get it even less. Try listening to Glen Kuiper without cringing.

This is not a message board. And I define a message board as very little content followed by the ability of users to comment and add a continual series of responses. Essentially a gross off shoot of the old Bulletin Board System (BBS) in the early days of the public internet. I'm thrilled that many are carrying on some of the thoughts in the comments area, but I am not about to start correcting people. I'll let others do that. The difficulty is, MLB.com already has a message board as does ESPN.com and a few other commercial baseball sites. Message boards become the lowest common denominator of information dissemination. In fact, I'd argue that much of it is not information or even chatter. Just pointless and a waste of time.

I really don't want to read about which Oakland A's player has the best ass or endure a 'fan' who claims that the A's are the best team in baseball, every A's player is the best in baseball and has no significant basis for these statements other than the fact they want to be able to put their funny user name on "them internets with that 'puter thing".

I have experimented with a varied format, with an administrator with another site, so that people can type in real time and respond to each other. I can retool that and revive it here - call it a forum rather than a bulletin board and have regular hours where readers can submit with an immediate response. Either with me, or others on the fringes of the inner workings of baseball. Closer to instant messaging than a true chat session where messages are sent and senders hope that there is a response on the subject they submitted. Usually there is not.

Which brings me to the next bit. I am not sure I want to attend the A's Fan Fest tomorrow. I did attend the previous few years and the only real fun for me is getting a chance to ask Billy Beane a question in the Question and Answer sessions. Even then I expected a typical Beane response, but sportswriters and others with access to Billy Beane have a tendency to ask the same basic questions. Beane is only too happy to respond with patent answers. In some cases print sportswriters are simply taking a sound bite, a small sample, from an answer to a question. Interviews with Beane are merely an elongated form of the process without the editing. Glen Kuiper's sit-downs with Beane have an elegant view of how bad the sports world has changed. Where is Howard Cossell when we need him?

Rob Neyer's recent article on ESPN.com is a wonderful example of a writer with access being able to point out the asinine and the ridiculous. Neyer is not a sportswriter. He's a writer who happens to write about baseball. Oh, and as you know, I have told ESPN.com to shove their pay-to-read 'Insider' service. I asked Rob Neyer about his column being moved from the free area of ESPN.com two years ago, I believe the actually phrasing of the question was, "what the hell?" So, here's Rob Neyer's ESPN.com article:

Coliseum unkind to power hitters


By Rob Neyer
"Wednesday, for the first time in my moderately lengthy and supremely improbable career, I participated in a press conference. I did this supremely improbable thing because (a) I was invited, (b) it's not every day that Frank Thomas changes teams, and (c) I enjoy listening to A's general manager Billy Beane try to amuse himself without actually saying anything interesting.


Actually, it was a teleconference, with Beane presiding over all the writers and broadcasters who cared to dial in for his comments about the signing of Thomas. I planned to take good notes, but I gave up almost immediately, after being reminded that Beane rarely says anything worth repeating (on the record, at least).


I did get one for posterity (though it wasn't one of my own lame questions).


Question: [Actually, all I remember is that it was something about the desirability of Thomas' experience. And there might have been something about intangibles mentioned.]


Answer: "You know what? One intangible, possibly, is that this is a guy whose skill level, whose presence in the lineup is undeniable. Frank Thomas is a presence. Not only is he our type of offensive player, he's everybody's type of offensive player." Exactly. Thomas has played in only 108 games over the last two seasons. But when he's played, he's been good enough to bat .255/.400/.571 (and for any neophytes who might be reading, those last two numbers are the important ones, and they're awfully good).


And as you've no doubt heard, the A's got Thomas cheap: $500,000 guaranteed, with various health- and performance-based incentives that could push his compensation all the way to $3.1 million. Still a relative pittance these days.


But here's the truly beautiful thing about this deal: If Thomas isn't healthy enough to earn those bonuses, the A's won't miss him. Seriously. The A's already had a solid lineup. Last season, they finished sixth in the American League in scoring, even though they had Dan Johnson for only two-thirds of the season, and Bobby Crosby for only half the season. Mark Ellis enjoyed what's likely to be his career season, but nobody else did anything out of character (except Jason Kendall, who was so terrible that he almost has to be not only better in 2006, but a lot better). This winter they picked up Milton Bradley. On top of this giant cupcake, Thomas isn't even a cherry; he's just some of those shiny sprinkles that look a lot better than they taste.


Maybe that's not fair. It does seem unlikely, though, that Thomas actually will play more than 50 or 60 games. And more worrisome, perhaps, is this: From 2000 through 2005, Thomas hit 108 home runs in his cozy home ballpark -- and 39 everywhere else. Those numbers are so extreme -- you don't see numbers like that from anybody, not even Colorado's sluggers -- that it's almost impossible to believe that they're meaningful in a literal sort of way. But new Comiskey is incredibly friendly to power hitters, and Oakland's Coliseum is not.


I've known about Thomas' struggles away from the South Side, but I forgot Wednesday. So I didn't ask Billy Beane about Thomas' home/road splits (and neither did anybody else). I did ask about another split, though. Over the course of his career, Thomas has hit significantly better while playing first base than DHing. Here are his career stats at both spots, courtesy of my friends at STATS:





	AB	OBP	SLG
DH	3442	.402	.512
1B	3485	.453	.625



As a first baseman, Thomas is either the greatest right-handed batter since Rogers Hornsby, or the greatest ever. As a designated hitter, he's been fantastic, but hardly some sort of historical figure who inspires poetry and interpretive dance. Do those numbers tell us anything about Thomas' abilities? Or are we simply looking at randomness or the natural manifestation of a player who played first base when he was healthy and DH'd when he wasn't? I don't know.


Here are some meaningful numbers, though:


	AB	OBP	SLG
Career vs. LHP	1654	.456	.657
Career vs. RHP	5302	.418	.540




For a lot of reasons, I'm pulling for Thomas. I hope the apparent trends have, in this case, absolutely no predictive qualities. But even if he's reasonably healthy, Thomas is unlikely to help the Athletics in a full-time role. The A's have a deep bench. No, we can't expect the manager to play Thomas only at first base against right-handers in homer-prone ballparks. But with lefty-killers Thomas and Bobby Kielty on the roster, along with right-handed hitting Jay Payton, there are roughly 12 guys who deserve some sort of defined, regular (or semi-regular) role.

Manager Ken Macha has a real challenge on his hands. Billy Beane has provided Macha with a wealth of talent. Everybody does something well. This team is probably good enough, given a reasonable degree of luck, to win 95 games and take the division title. But for this team to achieve its true potential, Macha will have to juggle every nonpitcher on his roster without causing too much dissension in the ranks. Most managers wouldn't be up to the task. But let's keep an eye on this one."

So, you got the 'it's a good deal' some of you have been begging for. And you also got it kicked back in your face by Rob Neyer. I still take the position that there's not a whole lot to make of this situation until Thomas can actually step into the batter's box. If he does, that changes the complexion of the A's roster and there are lots of options to be considered. But, even these considerations have been floating out there since the end of last season. Many have hitched their anchor to Nick Swisher being the second coming of Mickey Mantle ("cuz they wrote a book called Moneyballer about him") and that Beane would "never trade Swisher".

Or trade:

Mark Redman, Tim Hudson, Nelson Cruz, Mark Mulder, Ted Lilly, Terrence Long, Ramon Hernandez, Michael Barrett, Bret Price, Bill Murphy, Mike Neu, Eduardo Sierra, J.T. Stotts, Jason Grabowski, Chad Harville, Frank Menechino, Mike Wood, Mark Teahen, Cory Lidle, Billy Koch, Neal Cotts, Daylon Holt Jason Arnold, John-Ford ThunderCougarFalconbird Griffin, Aaron Harang, Joe Valentine, Jeff Bruksch, Mark Bellhorn, Eric Hinske, Justin Miller, Tom Wilson, Jason Hart, Gerald Laird, Ryan Ludwick, and Mario Ramos, Luis Vizcaino, Jeremy Giambi, Carlos Pena, Franklyn German, Jeremy Bonderman, Jon Adkins, Marshall McDougall, Randy Velarde, Matt Stairs, Miguel Olivo, Ben Grieve, Angel Berroa, A.J. Hinch, Miguel Cairo, Ryan Christenson, Robin Jennings, Todd Belitz, Mario Encarnacion, Jose Ortiz, Michael Wenner, Jimmy Haynes, Brett Laxton, Jesus Colome, Danny Ardoin, Jorge Velandia, Jay Witasick, Kenny Rogers, Jeff Davanon, Elvin Nina, and Nathan Haynes, Jeff D'Amico, Brad Rigby, and Blake Stein, Billy Taylor, Carl Dale, Scott Brosius, David Newhan, Don Wengert, Steve Karsay, Eric Ludwick, Shane Mack, Greg Hansell, Kurt Abbott, Ara Petrosian, Jason Wood, Adam Robinson, Scott Rivette, John Wasdin,
Creighton Gubanich, Geronimo Berroa, Mark McGwire...