ELEPHANTS IN OAKLAND
an Oakland Athletics Blog:
Pitching, Defense and the Three Run Jimmy-Jack


ELEPHANTS IN OAKLAND
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Thursday, February 23, 2006
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B A L L S

You are not alone. There are other people. They have jobs that require skills, education and can perform under stress situations.



...and they have to work with people like this.

Training, is actually "Train the Trainer". We start a training cycle of 3000+ users over the next several weeks. This is the email, sent less than 12 hours before the class.

And no, this isn't a joke.

The reason the trainers are being trained 72 hours prior to beginning training? The person above had championed the ability to kiss ass and push off responsibilities to other people. When our boss asked if the timetable was being met and if everything was on track - "everything is great!"

Did I mention that I work in the Health Care industry? Hmm. You probably want to do your best to avoid getting sick for the next several months.

There you go kids. It's always better to put on a shit-eating grin and pretend everything is peachy and in the background, just over there, a half dozen co-workers jumping up and down pulling their hair out.

Master the art of office politics and you'll go far, kid. It's not about content, it's not about responsibility, it's getting yours. Having undeserved attention lavished upon you for basically perpetrating a fraud.

Meanwhile 3,000 health care providers are stressed out because the new Electronic Medical System they use doesn't make sense and patients start to die because of errors in documentation. Soon budget cuts take their toll, lawsuits pile up, funding disappears and suddenly the capitol city of California loses it's primary emergency care center and the taxpayers are throwing money on top of a burning pile of $35 Billion each year.

No, it can't be that bad. It is actually worse than that.

Comments:

Don't worry Zach. I work in the Health Care System in Canada...and it ain't any better up here.

 

Is he talking about something else other than work, there?

 

Are you sure you work in Health Care? Are you sure you don't work at my office? No wait, then someone else would be doing work besides me!

 

I have seen you before Zach...you are the guy on the careerbuilder.com commercials with all the monkeys!!! Those are my favorite!

 

Dude, keep your work out of your blog. They can fire you for showing that email. Besides, if you look for a new job anyone who Googles your name will see this. Employers don't want to hire a guy who posts company emails in his blog.
Seriously, take down this post and look for a new job dude!

 

Zach has an Ace in the Hole. He can always bring his inestimable skills to bear, under the WBM Inc. flag. I can use the help. And I don't care if he tells people about his job. And I fire brownnosers, so he won't have to deal with them. Of course, he'll have to deal with me.....heh. heh. ... heh.

 

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BLUTHINESS

"But I DON'T let 'em tell me what to do."


- George Bluth, Sr.


Things have blown up at work and there are careers hanging in the balance and patient safety issue that might mean delaying the project I am working on. Serious implications and cost, not too mention a lot of fun in a few months when the budget cut ax gets taken out in a few weeks.

I did want to leave some breadcrumbs, though as a lot of the comments lately have been good. It looks like there's more actual debate than posturing.


  • Why have we forgotten/forsaken Kith Ginter?



  • If George Steinbrenner talks and a reporter isn't there to record it, does he really make a sound?



  • Isn't it great when those on the inner fringe of baseball prove that MLB front offices are full of crap?



  • Are facts merely annoying obstacles in the way of truth?


I've got some free time this afternoon and I might just walk away from my job at any moment. So, check back in a few.

Comments:

I guess what I want to know is, why is Marco Scutaro virtually handed a roster spot? He is basically a poor man's version of Antonio Perez, who is already a K-Mart blue light special.

Unless Crosby and/or Ellis is hurt, there is no reason to have Perez, Scutaro, and Ginter on the squad, and there is no reason to have Perez and Scutaro on at the same time either.

I don't know if Ginter's atrocious year was a sample size fluke or whatever, and unlike Watson or Ron Flores, I don't know if he'll ever regain that confidence, but having him play in AAA is also a waste of money, especially considering the teams that had a need this offseason at 2B (Twins, Royals, Pirates, Mets, Cincy, St. Louis, etc.)

I still think it has been a great offseason (such as the Thomas signing), but there are some things left on the table.
And on a side note, maybe the situation with Chavez-Ginter last year (Ginter was supposed to spell Chavy at 3rd) is what has swung me to the dark side about Macha. He showed absolutely no ability to work his depth at one of the few positions he had it.

 

I think the ultimate problem is that Ginter was so bad last year that he has absolutely no trade value, and the A's don't want to release him because they traded a very good proospect, Nelson Cruz, for him.

Also, I don't really have evidence for this, but I get the feeling that Ginter is one of those guys that needs regular playing time and won't thrive as a sub, whereas Scutaro seems to do well as a sub but gets exposed with regular playing time. Perez I know little about, except that he's got a little bit of pop, and he's fairly young and cheap, making him an A's kind of player. I'm too lazy to look up the data on any of this.

Should Ginter get another shot? Sure. Will he? Nah. The best any of us can hope is that he hits .500 this spring, draws the interest of one of the teams Ruben mentions, and brings back a live arm in a trade.

 

When Ginter accepted assignment to Sacramento, (he had the right to refuse, but no one would be paying him a million dollars to be playing this year, so perhaps wisely, he didn't), the $1M or so that the A's contract requires him to be paid became a sunk cost. That is, whatever the A's do with him; play him in Oakland, play him in Sacramento, or release him outright, they're going to pay him that million dollars. The question then becomes what makes the most sense for them?

If the organization believes Ginter will bounce back to something like what he was in Milwaukee, they'll play him in Oakland. If they don't, they'll play him in Sacramento, where he'll be Justin Case, and help win the River Cats another division championship, or possibly make himself tradeable if he plays well enough.

 

very true...sometimes you just gotta eat it when you make a mistake

 

Perez and Scutaro actually fit different roles. Last year I watched virtually every game Perez played and while the boy can hit - he hit everybody, just about everyday, and only dipped below .300 at the last minute - he was fairly atrocious in the infield. I see him as a pinch hitter and Scoot as a late-inning defensive replacement. Ginter has been chalked up as a loss.

 

I think Ginter's falling off was due to the steroid/drug testing scrutiny.

 

WHAT?

Ginter never tested positive for anything.

And even if he did - who cares? The only person who really got nailed for it is Rafael Palmiero and that's because of what he said in Congress.

They aren't investigating Miguel Yejada, the guy that supplied Palmiero.

 

Don't remember were I read it, but Beane tried to send Ginter to the Dodgers as part of the Bradley deal.

Didn't fly.

And I think Ginter's salary is $1.4 million next/this season.

 

It's not. Ginter's contract was for $450K in 2005, and slightly over $1M (like, $1.03M, I think) in 2006.

Which doesn't really matter. If it were $1.4M, that money would be as sunk as the $1M is.

 

Maybe it was $1.04 million for Ginter and I transposed the numbers.

Or I could be losing my mind.

 

Spending too much time thinking about Ginter'll do that to you.

 

I think about Keith Ginter a lot.

 

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Sunday, February 19, 2006
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NOW BATTING

How can you say those things

When they aim to sting

It always sounds the same

When you call me names


CALL ME NAMES, The Specials



Okay. There are a number of sources for projections out there; PECOTA a Nate Silver application brought to you by Baseball Prospectus, the Bill James Handbook and Ron Shandler. I lean toward PECOTA because it's been shown, however slightly, to be a better projection application. Plus, Nate Silver has been cool about talking about how he developed PECOTA. With Bill James you have to guess he has done some interesting background stuff. But what we don't know won't hurt us. Shandler, I haven't really given a lot of faith to since the word 'fantasy' is written across the cover of the book. Just a marketing device, still...

(ED NOTE: It's more likely because I am too lazy to physically input the data for James AND Shandler)

Below are the breakdowns for both PECOTA and James. And I realize that I am breaking a taboo about 'reprinting' material. It's called Fair Use. Further, I clearly provided the source and hyperlinks where you can purchase the other 99% of the data. I'm just using a small bit.

I am pretty sure I could go back and look at the 2005 projections and list the actual statistics. But, both PECOTA and Bill James factor the actual 2005 statistics for the formula for the output below. I'll have some chatter at the end, so get ready for so head scratching.

PECOTA v BILL JAMES


FirstLastAgePosPROJECTOR
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
JasonKendall32CPECOTA
550
66
149
27
2
2
50
43
41
.270
.333
.338
.671
BILL JAMES
569
78
168
29
1
4
53
53
41
.295
.374
.371
.745
AdamMelhuse34CPECOTA
65
7
16
3
0
2
9
5
17
.247
.304
.418
.722
BILL JAMES
255
31
67
17
0
9
35
22
57
.263
.321
.435
.756


FirstLastAgePosPROJABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
NicholasSwisher25RFPECOTA
453
64
114
27
1
21
72
62
102
.252
.347
.453
.800
BILL JAMES
496
73
120
38
1
21
79
59
111
.242
.326
.450
.776
DanielJohnson261BPECOTA
504
73
137
29
1
21
81
62
77
.272
.353
.462
.815
BILL JAMES
548
80
151
34
1
23
93
72
73
.276
.361
.467
.828
FrankThomas38DHPECOTA
207
33
49
9
0
15
42
32
55
.239
.345
.502
.847
    BILL JAMES
283
45
71
16
0
18
52
52
66
.251
.375
.498
.873


FirstLastAgePosPROJ
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
BA
OBP
SLG
OPS
BobbyCrosby26SSPECOTA
490
74
132
29
3
18
71
55
99
.269
.346
.451
.797
BILL JAMES
541
87
145
37
3
20
72
58
103
.268
.342
.458
.800
EricChavez283BPECOTA
566
90
153
32
2
27
95
72
106
.271
.354
.479
.833
BILL JAMES
592
94
162
37
2
30
103
72
116
.274
.354
.495
.849
MarkEllis292BPECOTA
479
70
135
26
3
12
57
47
63
.283
.351
.426
.777
BILL JAMES
467
78
136
25
4
12
52
49
56
.291
.365
.439
.804
KeithGinter302BPECOTA
170
20
41
9
1
6
23
15
38
.241
.311
.410
.721
BILL JAMES
239
31
61
15
1
9
36
25
49
.255
.336
.439
.775
AntonioPerez262BPECOTA
295
41
76
15
2
8
33
25
64
.257
.324
.399
.723
BILL JAMES
328
46
93
18
3
6
33
28
81
.284
.345
.412
.757
MarcoScutaro30SSPECOTA
374
45
96
21
2
9
43
30
49
.256
.313
.389
.702
BILL JAMES
442
55
120
28
2
10
43
36
54
.271
.326
.412
.738

FirstLastAgePosPROJABRH2B3BHRRBIBBSOBAOBPSLGOPS
MiltonBradley28CFPECOTA
432
69
121
25
2
15
61
49
75
.279
.355
.447
.802
BILL JAMES
476
72
133
30
2
17
63
59
95
.279
.362
.458
.820
FreddieBynum26CFPECOTA
354
44
88
15
4
3
29
26
82
.250
.303
.345
.648
BILL JAMES
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
X
BobbyKielty29LFPECOTA
345
49
88
19
1
11
47
48
66
.255
.348
.408
.756
BILL JAMES
310
46
80
18
1
9
46
46
54
.258
.359
.410
.769
MarkKotsay30CFPECOTA
566
74
157
34
3
13
70
46
61
.277
.332
.414
.746
BILL JAMES
596
81
174
35
3
14
70
52
65
.292
.350
.431
.781
JayPayton33LFPECOTA
334
40
89
15
1
11
46
21
41
.267
.312
.415
.727
BILL JAMES
413
61
118
20
2
14
57
29
51
.286
.337
.446
.783
NicholasSwisher25RFPECOTA
453
64
114
27
1
21
72
62
102
.252
.347
.453
.800
BILL JAMES
496
73
120
38
1
21
79
59
111
.242
.326
.450
.776
CharlesThomas27CFPECOTA
247
32
63
13
2
4
26
20
48
.253
.317
.370