Wednesday, August 30, 2006
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RUNS AROUND
I received a few email questions in the last three days. I am very disappointed that someone has not picked up the ball and ran with it. Sorry for the football reference. LOB. GIDP. What do they mean? RUNS. That's what they relate to. That's where you should have taken your analysis. Namely, how do GIDP and LOB correlate to runs scored?
I'll lay it out for you, again, and try to spell it out. I've even included the rankings in the hopes that you can stare and compare the numbers without being too involved.
This is a really easy exercise in offensive efficiency: How many base runners does a team need to score a run?
"Well, if he hits a homerun..."
No. Not in that context. How many base runners are needed per run?
Add up hits, walks and hit by pitch. I have not included errors for two reasons - the data is hard to interpret and nearly impossible to get. It's not that hard to find out how many errors a team's opposition has committed. The hard part is determining if a player reached base, or advanced a base. So, let's call it negligible as all teams play each other and they are not performing in a vacuum. Okay?
Good.
BR - Base Runners
BPR - Base Runners per Run
Here is a very easy view of how efficient teams are at scoring runs. The White Sox lead MLB in runs and just so happen to be the most efficient at scoring runs. The Padres need the most base runners per run and they happen to be 27th in MLB in runs scored.
Let's look at the A's.
There are just two American League teams that rank in the first 10 of Base Runners per Run (the most number of Base Runners per Run). The A's rank 5th and the Royals rank 7th. The rest of those teams are National League teams.
So what?
As the A's go deeper into the season, they are going to face some good pitching, namely Minnesota, Chicago, the Angels (again), the Mariners and the Angels (again, again) to close out the season. With the A's struggle to score runs, BECAUSE OF THE NUMBER OF BASERUNNERS THEY NEED TO SCORE A RUN, the A's only solace is that their pitching could be just enough to better their opponents.
And that is the margin that we park our hopes upon.
Jeepers. That reads like a follow up post.
posted by ZACHARY D MANPRIN at 2:13 PM
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Tuesday, August 29, 2006
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COULD EUCLID BEAT UP COPERNICUS?
The larger question is, "how the hell do the A's keep winning?" Their Pythagorean Expectation smacks the unconventional, conventional wisdom. There have been a lot of ridiculous explanations for the difference in the A's scoring and preventing runs totals. One of the more curious is that the A's allow runs later in games that make it seem closer than it is. From a knee jerk reactionary seat, yah, I can see why that appears to be the case. But all teams play 9 innings and the numbers are the numbers, no matter when the come in. Another is that the A's have been running into bad pitching. I do not doubt this for a second. The A's are still leaving runners on base and grounding into double plays as if they expect to win a prize for the next GIDP. The A's are not a good hitting team and while some A's hitters are beginning to perform closer to an expected level - when your starter gives up 8 runs and gets the win...
Baseball Prospectus' Clay Davenport has taken Bill James' Pythagorean Expectation to a different perspective and lays out win expectations by: Runs Scored and Runs Allowed, Equivalent Runs and Equivalent Runs Allowed, and Equivalent Runs and Equivalent Runs Allowed - based on strength of schedule.
All you need to know:Games a team should win can be calculated a number of different ways, this method allows sifting of things like "luck", "bad luck", "curses" and "intangibles".
Let's steal a look at the American League West.
This is the same Pythagoras Theorem that I use on the MACHA TERROR WATCH. Runs scored and Runs Allowed as Bill James had surmised many years ago. A's should not be in first place. But they are.
The win/loss records based on Equivalent Runs. Here is the definition as provided by Baseball Prospectus :"Equivalent Average. A measure of total offensive value per out, with corrections for league offensive level, home park, and team pitching. EQA considers batting as well as baserunning, but not the value of a position player's defense. The EqA adjusted for all-time also has a correction for league difficulty. The scale is deliberately set to approximate that of batting average. League average EqA is always equal to .260."
The A's are should actually be seven games behind in the AL West. But they aren't.
WINS LOSSES AEQR AEQRA W3 L3 ANGELS 69 62 650 586 72.0 59.0 RANGERS 67 65 682 627 71.3 60.7 ATHLETICS 74 56 613 606 65.8 64.2 MARINERS 61 69 598 598 62.4 67.6
The Adjusted Standings according to AEQR. Here is the definition as provided by Baseball Prospectus:"EQR and EQRA, adjusted for strength of schedule: the quality of their opponent's pitching and hitting. If AEQR is higher than EQR, the team has faced better than average pitching; if AEQRA is higher than EQRA, the team has faced worse than average hitting."
The A's have faced near average pitching. The Rangers and Angels have faced tougher pitching. Namely the A's. The A's should be in third place. But they aren't.
And then the Deltas. What is the difference in the analysis and the actuality and what does it mean? A negative number mean the team has won fewer games than expected, a positive number more games than expected.
The A's are the only team in baseball with 3 positive deltas and a positive double digit delta. The A's should have 5, 10, or even 8 wins less than what they have now. But they don't.
If you're an A's fan, what do you care? The A's are in first place and bound for the playoffs!
If you're an A's fan, you should care. The A's, in all consideration, are about 7 games above where they should be, the Angels 3 games below, the Rangers about 3 games below and the Mariners have stabbed them selves in the back by losing so many games (15 straight) to Oakland. Hey. 7 Games. If the A's and Mariners had split their season series...
I have mentioned this dozens if not hundreds of times; the last two seasons the A's were in first place in the AL West on the 1st of September. In 2004 the A's finished 1 game back and were eliminated in the final weekend by the Angels. They were three games up on the Angels on the 1st of September. Last season the A's stumble-bummed their way to October by a whopping 7 games out. They had an identical record as the Angels on the 1st of September.
If you are patting yourself on the back for the A's being in 1st place, bully for you. If you are still worried that the A's outlying issues are enough to bite them in the ass - I SALUTE YOU. You are in the know.
posted by ZACHARY D MANPRIN at 10:10 AM
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Sunday, August 27, 2006
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HEY, THAT HURTS
HEY, THAT HURTS
One of the more agonizing aspects of the A's play this season is a carryover form last season. And the season before that. The A's are freaks. Recently the set an Oakland record for batting average in a season. Of course, they also set an Oakland record for runners Left On Base (LOB). And Grounding Into Double Plays. Oof.
I'm going to try and walk you through the team statistics for Major League Baseball. Not just the American League, but all of baseball.
I've ranked the key team statistics to make it a little easier.