Goes to show
How winds blow
The weather's fine
And I feel so so-so, so





After reading the quotes from yesterday and all of the surrounding articles regarding the Ken Macha dismissal it's time to start seeing what fits.

There are a lot of categories on the field where I thought Ken Macha was an inferior manager and not fit for the position ;

• Bullpen Management


• Base running


• Defensive Positioning


• Bullpen Management


• Line-up


• Winning

There are many other areas I will touch on, but let's look at the areas above as tangibles, for now.


BULLPEN MANAGEMENT


The A's bullpen as individual performers did a pretty good job. They were in the higher echelon in the American League. To a point. It's difficult to blast statistics at you without getting into the deep, deep levels like some of the blokes at Baseball Prospectus. So, we'll just take the obvious stuff to get started.

	TEAM	G	W	L	ERA	SvO	Sv	BS	Sv%	IP	ER	R	BB	SO
1	MINN	161	26	10	2.91	50	40	10	80	498	161	176	137	450
2	DET	159	20	20	3.51	62	46	16	74	471	184	207	186	352
3	OAK	157	25	15	3.60	74	54	20	73	465	186	200	189	365
4	TEX	159	19	24	3.74	65	42	23	65	534	222	248	198	422
5	LAA	157	25	17	3.78	63	50	13	79	464	195	218	175	414
6	TOR	156	26	13	3.98	62	42	20	68	529	234	257	212	451
7	SEA	156	27	19	4.04	67	47	20	70	488	219	230	227	425
	TEAM	G	W	L	ERA	SvO	Sv	BS	Sv%	IP	ER	R	BB	SO
8	NYY	157	23	23	4.18	60	43	17	72	510	237	259	215	413
9	BOS	159	25	20	4.51	69	46	23	67	503	252	275	186	388
10	CWS	157	18	20	4.53	63	46	17	73	407	205	216	179	337
11	CLE	149	16	27	4.66	47	24	23	51	422	219	237	166	348
12	TBR	159	25	31	4.94	54	33	21	61	513	282	314	231	336
13	BAL	157	19	25	5.25	56	35	21	63	512	299	319	228	335
14	KCR	159	24	34	5.36	66	35	31	53	577	344	369	272	441

A few things right off the bat (I hate using that phrase); the A's number of blown saves and their save opportunities. Try not to get hung up on ERA as a comparable after the Twins ERA - which is incredible. What you should look at is the difference between runs and earned runs. There's an ongoing debate on how many runs, over a season's average, equal a win. 3. 4. 4 and a half. Let's skip that and just look at the difference between the ERA and what should be the Actual Run Average. Because Official Scorers are so fickle - can we really judge that as a determining factor (SEE: Eric Chavez)? Maybe. If we take into consideration that all Official Scorers are little Napoleonic dictators - a MLB rule in the press box is that you can not argue with an Official Scorer. You can be banned, in some cases, for life from covering baseball for arguing.


We're talking about the bullpen, but how much does defense, good defense, save a bad decision by a manager?


Remember, the A's were second in the American League inducing 149 GIDP - the Royals led the league with 161. Take into consideration that the Royals OBP was almost 30 points higher (more runners on base - more GIDP opportunities). Back to the point, the A's defense prowess is strength. A good thing it is, too.

TEAM	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	K/BB	K/9	P/PA	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	TB
MIN	.248	.301	.359	.660	1.21	3.28	8.13	3.77	4.57	467	84	5	39	678
DET	.242	.319	.375	.694	1.31	1.89	6.72	3.73	4.14	431	69	14	47	669
OAK	.255	.331	.377	.708	1.37	1.93	7.06	3.86	3.75	450	79	13	37	666
TEX	.249	.322	.364	.686	1.31	2.13	7.11	3.85	4.01	501	80	8	45	732
LAA	.245	.316	.389	.704	1.31	2.37	8.02	3.91	3.59	431	93	6	49	683
TOR	.246	.322	.384	.706	1.34	2.13	7.67	3.87	4.36	496	98	4	57	773
SEA	.245	.331	.384	.714	1.39	1.87	7.83	3.93	4.88	450	85	8	51	704
TEAM	BAA	OBP	SLG	OPS	WHIP	K/BB	K/9	P/PA	RS	H	2B	3B	HR	TB
NYY	.251	.330	.403	.733	1.38	1.92	7.29	3.91	4.20	488	99	9	60	785
BOS	.273	.341	.425	.766	1.42	2.09	6.94	3.84	4.38	531	113	12	53	827
CWS	.258	.337	.431	.768	1.43	1.88	7.45	3.83	4.18	404	75	8	60	675
CLE	.274	.343	.431	.774	1.45	2.10	7.41	3.79	4.30	446	89	7	51	702
TBR	.295	.368	.455	.823	1.62	1.45	5.89	3.76	4.61	602	124	10	61	929
BAL	.284	.358	.478	.836	1.55	1.47	5.88	3.83	4.04	568	101	15	86	957
KCR	.279	.359	.452	.811	1.55	1.62	6.87	3.88	4.83	625	118	13	81	1012

Yeesh. The A's bullpen let guys get on base like it meant the next guy heading to first base would win them a prize. Is it luck, or skill then, that the opponent's OPS is as high as it is, but the A's allowed so few runs? That RS (run support) is a bigger component than we think, too. That is the number of runs scored for the pitcher of record. In other words, the A's offense stunk on ice when the relief pitchers took the mound. Luck? Dunno. Maybe. The Angels and Rangers scored even fewer runs but the other teams in that group include the Royals, Devil Rays and Orioles.


The A's strikeout ratio and walks to strikeouts, along with the Tigers, are just weird. They don't K a lot of batters and they let a lot of hitters get on base via the walk. You can count strategy - pitching around certain hitters. If you have a good defense, pitching around the heart of a lineup might account for some double plays. But that's riding a fine line of disaster. It would just be easier is your hitters would score a damn run.


So. Okay. Defense important in keeping runs down, offense sure would help as clearly stated in the A's number of save opportunities. If your offense continually scores just enough runs for you to win - at some point the luck/skill will even out. The A's record in games decided by one run or less was 32-22. 7 more wins than the Angels and a whopping 12 more than the Mariners and 15 more than the Rangers. Of course the A's led MLB in the number of 1-run games.


They A's bullpen was deep and many pointed to that depth as a very strong reason the A's would make the playoffs and some had the A's winning the World Series. Curious, then that the A's bullpen clearly benefited more from their starting pitching than their offense. The starters kept games close and handed it over to the 'pen. The bullpen was sloppy in many cases and Huston Street was only 73% successful in save opportunities. Sloppy in the sense that the A's had stellar performances by Justin Duchscherer, Chad Gaudin, Joe Kennedy and Kiko Calero. Not so much from the rest of the 'pen.


And the big question of use of those pitchers in the bullpen is where we'll pick up this conversation when we discuss a new manager's role.

Everybody's talking at me
I don't hear a word they're saying
Only the echoes of my mind


People stopping staring
I can't see their faces
Only the shadows of their eyes

So, Ken Macha and Billy Beane broke up. And the Jones Junior High denial game keeps perpetuating itself. If you read a lot of the following quotes like two people ratting each other out to their friends at their lockers and being snotty about it - makes for a little more fun.


From BASEBALL PROSPECTUS:


The Week In Quotes

October 16-23
by Alex Carnevale



"I'm a human being. Just treat me like one, OK? My son gets on the Internet, he's 25 years old, he's reading all this stuff, he's looking at what happened and he calls up my wife and says, 'Do you think Daddy's going to be able to learn from this?' How's that for shock factor?"
--former Oakland Athletics manager Ken Macha, fired after signing a three-year contract with the A's last winter.


"There were things that transpired over the course of the year that the players were unhappy about. There's no question there were things throughout the year, but the fact of the matter is that that by the end of the year, the players didn't have the same feeling about the manager as they did at the start of the year--and that was at a point you'd think everybody would be happy, with a six-game lead. ... I believe there was friction."
--A's center fielder Mark Kotsay, on Macha.


"The whole thing was a weird situation for me because ever since he came here we had a pretty good relationship, but over the last couple years, I could see things unfold, and I kept hearing things. He's always been very open and communicative with me, and with some other players that wasn't true. I heard some things that were kind of disturbing. I think there are going to be a lot of guys who are happy about this."< />
--A's third baseman Eric Chavez


"I wasn't fired because these players were upset. I know that. Billy Beane knows that. And I'm OK with that decision."
--Macha


"The atmosphere wasn't positive, for some reason. That was hard for us to deal with--here we are, winning the division, we're banged up but we're still doing what we should be doing, and every time he spoke to us, he'd say how much appreciated the effort, but then you'd read things where he was always smashing people. ... This negative cloud was just eating at everybody.''
--Chavez


"The fact is, when you have someone leading people, you want them to be a visionary, to forge ahead and be on the front lines. We felt like we were on the front lines, and he might have been with us but he didn't have the same conviction or faith. I think it was a fear of failure. He was a little more focused on the pessimistic stuff than on success."
--Barry Zito


"Jay Payton was disgruntled in Boston; he was disgruntled here. He came in my office; I gave him the answer. As a matter of fact, at the beginning of the meeting we were kind of shouting at each other. But we aired it out, then he stood up, and he said, 'I just wanted you to know my frustration.' He shook my hand and left. I told him, 'Payton, you start producing, you'll be in the lineup.' And he did."
--Macha; Payton posted a .296/.325/.418 line on the year.


WE SUGGEST USING MAGNUMS NEXT YEAR
"I felt like he didn't protect me. I know a lot of managers do--Paul Konerko told me that Ozzie Guillen would take a bullet for his players. I was upset, but Macha was fighting his own battle and he probably couldn't process that kind of pressure, so, OK, I'll wear it."
--Zito


"I know that the one thing any player wants from his manager is to be protected. If there's a bang-bang play at first, even if you're out, if you're arguing you want someone there behind you. If you argue a pitch, even if you're wrong, you want someone joining in. And I'm not sure Macha did that."
--A's Jason Kendall


"Well, that's not my style. I truly believe these umpires are trying to do their best, and I think in the back of your mind, if you're feeling they're trying to screw you, you have missed focus. You're letting something that you have no control over affect how you play."
--Macha, on Kendall's assertions that his manager didn't back him up in disputes with umpires.


MUTINY IN OAKLAND-ALAMEDA COUNTY


"I don't want a mud-slinging match. I want to take the high road. When I bowed out, I thanked Billy. I hope they do well next year and the year after and the year after."
--Macha


"When I got injured, I felt disrespected. The 'puzzling' comment really threw me. My manager didn't have my back, and every manager's first business is to protect his players. That totally lost my trust in that relationship, between us as player and manager."
--Mark Kotsay


"Bad backs are mysterious. That was basically my comment. It was not derogatory in any manner toward Kotsay as far as him not wanting to play or his desire to play."
--Macha


YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE REASON!
"I can't come out and say that, because Billy didn't come out and say it. I think you can figure it out, though."
--Macha, on the reason he was fired.


"I don't want Billy to take heat for this because this is what needed to happen. If Billy is comfortable with it, we're behind Billy. Maybe Billy saw the same thing the players saw. If Billy gets blasted in the media, it's ridiculous. Billy's going to get a lashing, and he shouldn't."
--Kendall


"I heard Steve Phillips on ESPN saying, 'I don't understand this move because those guys were playing for Macha.' Well, we didn't play for him. This collective group wanted to win together, we felt we have a chance to win together, and we provided the leadership. The core guys who went out and played every day were the leaders of the team and carried us through the uncertainty. If there were problems, they were dealt with among the 25 guys."
--Kotsay, calling into question what studio personalities know or don't know.


ALSO, THERE WAS A GROWING CONSENSUS THAT KEN MAY HAVE BEEN PART OF THE DHARMA INITIATIVE


"Everyone thought it was weird Kotsay didn't hit against left-handers the last two months of the season, he's so great defensively. And it was unfair to sit him two months against lefties and then all of a sudden throw him in there in the playoffs against tough lefties like Santana and Kenny Rogers. I don't think Macha handled that correctly."
--A's pitcher Dan Haren


"How do you judge a manager? Was the team prepared to play? Did we win? Listen, 25 guys aren't going to love you, but did they play hard every day and go out and produce to the best of their ability? Really, that's the way you should be judged."
--Macha (Boston Globe)


"Deep down inside, I think he cared about the players, he just didn't have a good way of communicating. He was always asking me about guys, he wanted to know if they were OK, but I was always the one he talked to in his office and I was probably the one who least needed to be in there."
--Chavez


IT'S CALLED A TOP-DOWN ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE, PEOPLE
"I don't know how he put up with it for that long. Everybody has to answer to their general manager and you want feedback and suggestions from the organization. The best organizations are the ones who do things together and are on the same page. But in the end, it's the manager's decision who to play, when to play them."
--an A.L. executive, on Macha's toleration of Beane's "interference."


"Billy wanted Kielty in the postseason, and I play Kotsay, and then Kotsay comes out and says bad things about me while I basically got fired because I played him. It's kind of sad."
--Macha


"That's one instance, but it happened a lot."
--Macha


"It's a total fabrication. The A's have moved on. Unfortunately, Ken's memories of some things and the A's memories of some things are a little different, and the most important thing is that we've gone our way and he's gone his way."
--A's general manager Billy Beane, on Macha's comments.


"Haren had pitched all these big games for us, and now I'm telling him he has Game Four. ... If Harden gave up eight runs, are you going to come in and ask, 'Why did Billy pitch this guy?' No. Fortunately, Kotsay made two great catches and kept the game close."
--Macha, on being told to start Rich Harden in Game Three.


THAT'S A PRETTY LOW HIGH ROAD THERE, KEN


"What I want to do is take the high road. Let's focus on the eight years that I was there, the four years I was the manager, and what we did, all the success and the Rookies of the Year and the players we developed and all the other stuff. Let's not just look at the last day. Don't judge me by that. Don't do that. I know why I was fired and Billy knows why I was fired."
--Macha
 


We'll come back and discuss what is to believed the situation in the A's clubhouse the last few seasons.

The fallout over Ken Macha seems to be a bit less polarizing than the incidents surrounding George Allen 'macaca' situation. But it is nonetheless bizarre. There are, suddenly, stories coming from the woodwork that the A's players weren't exactly fond of Ken Macha and that him being rehired at this time last year was L E S S strange than him being fired this week. It also appears that Macha had favorites and that rubbed players the wrong way. It also seems (gasp!) Ken Macha had communication issues. Listening to his post game press conferences - who would have guessed?


What angers me most about the situation is the continuation of the traditional media to be shocked at any news story they finally decide to unveil. The Tool, Susan Slusser, let the cat out of the bag by finally printing remarks by A's players regarding their dislike of Ken Macha. Within 36 hours Ken Macha was out on his ass. Did Slusser finally print something because there was a window and the 'scoop' would go to her? Or did she print something because she finally had some guts? Or did she print something because Billy Beane used her like he always uses her; to get ahead of the story?


Are we really to believe that all other clubhouses are breeding grounds of discontent and animosity and well, typical clubhouses, whereas the A's clubhouse is a "frat house" and "fun place to be"? Has there been anything negative to come out of the Oakland A's clubhouse since Billy Beane was in place as General Manager? Maybe the Kenny Rogers incident with Jason McDonald - but even that occurred on a plane.


The A's didn't have to go far to get ahead of the story, anyway. The West Coast sports media is tame compared to the frothy mouthed sports media everywhere else in the known universe. And if by tame you read - 'next to death' then you have an accurate definition. Most clubhouses east of the Rockies have pipelines that lead directly into editorial columns and sound bites that end up on sports talk radio. Not on the left coast. That is just too much work and it disrupts the status quo. Particularly in baseball.


The National media takes its cues from the local media. When you listen to the Fox games on Saturdays during the regular season you hear just how little they know of the A's and the Mariners and the Padres. When the playoffs roll around, they have nothing to build off so they focus on coffee and revert to calling out the A's ineptitude at stealing bases and sacrifice bunts for their losses. When Joe Mauer and Ivan Rodriguez are behind the dish - the '85 Cardinals are not taking off on the first move either.


It took years for the sports world to find out that Billy Beane was "up to something" in Oakland, and they only figured that out when Michael Lewis published a book. That pissed the West Coast media off. How dare they be awaken from their slumber! Bud Selig had taken to calling the A's an aberration in light of their success.


When Paul DePodesta was hired as the General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers Bill Plashke made it a point that he would not last on his watch. They didn't have time for new acronyms and concepts. Never mind that DePodesta got the Dodgers to the post season in his first year as GM due to deft moves and his overhaul of the farm system allowed them to make the playoffs this season. One of the stories that came out of L.A. during DePodesta's turn was that obviously had not control - just look at Milton Bradley's behavior. In Oakland, Bradley is "under control" but thanks in part to nobody in particular.


Billy Beane clearly controls the press in Oakland. But he is not a Svengali when it comes to spin. Either out of disinterest or reluctance he does not use a death grip on the media and rankle out and force all to trumpet the party line. But he should. It has come to the point that many A's fans do not believe most of what is reported and the sound bites are less believable than anything Joe Morgan and Rick Sutcliffe can enunciate. Or Steve Lyons translate.

It appears that the veneer has finally eaten away and the A's clubhouse has been revealed for what it is.


The A's have had issues for years, particularly evasive issues in the clubhouse. The ridiculousness of the traditional media has allowed the creation of three A's teams; the A's you see on the field, the A's you read and hear about with the media, and the actually Oakland A's.


Ken Macha's time was done some time in the middle of the 2003 season. He was out after last season and brought back. Now, it looks like he might be out again.


[quote]Macha's relationships with a number of players have been the source of Bay Area stories for several seasons. Macha almost didn't return to the A's after last season, but was later rehired.[/quote]


Is it easier to get rid of the players or get rid of the manager? If you get rid of the manager, does a member of the coaching staff simply become an extension of the former regime? If you hire from the outside - do you have to fire the entire coaching staff?


This facade, this debate over this Ken Macha, might be the last hurrah of the Billy Beane experiment. The A's are at the point that they might have to be destroyed to save themselves. Has it really been this bad? Were the A's this season just a mirage? Were they winning in spite of themselves? How did it get bad this fast?

In order to cover the A's biggest off season concerns, let me list them and I'll try to attack them in the coming week.

• The Macha Question - many reasons to hate him, just as many to hate him a lot.



• The 25 Man Roster - who stays, who goes.




• The 40 Man Roster - let's discuss Mike Rouse and Rule V.




• The emergency help - what is in Sacramento.




• The long term help - what happened in Kane County and Stockton.




• Trades to consider - who would the A's consider trading and what can they get - Alex Rodriguez?




• A question of style - what is the feel of this team and organization.




• The media - can the A's continue to be pimped by the talking heads that surround them.




• The ballpark - just how bad is the Coliseum.




• The ownership - the Keebler elf gives many nightmares; don't look directly at his eyebrows.




• The fanbase - are A's fans as stupid as everyone thinks we are.




• The future - can the A's make the playoffs again this decade or is the run over.

The good news is that work has opened up and has allowed for some openings over the next few weeks. The bad news is that you may not like a lot of the things I write because they will be critical, they will make you think and your favorite player or person in the organization might be the cause of analysis. Too bad. It's the name on the front of the uniform that matters.


The A's made the playoffs, advanced to the ALCS...but they failed to win the World Series. Is that a successful season? And that is the question you have to keep asking at every level of the franchise; as a business, as a baseball team, as a community enterprise.


That's why we talk about it.

DETROIT ROCK CITY
vs
NEW YORK GROOVE


The 2006 Playoffs were right around the corner. It was crunch time. As each day clicked off the A's became more in control of their own fate. The last week of September rolled around and it looked as if the four teams were set; the Twins, Tigers and Yankees. Suddenly the rationalizing started pouring out that the A's should want to play the Tigers or the Twins in the first round and preferably the Tigers rather than the Twins in the first round. The Twins were on fire and took the AL Central on the last day of the season, the Yankees had 'the best lineup in the history of baseball' (or at least as far back as August of 2006).


The Tigers spanked the Yankees and the A's swept the Twins. After a long weekend, the A's now find themselves down 0-2 to the Tigers in the ALCS. Would you rather have DETROIT ROCK CITY down 0-2 or NEW YORK GROOVE down 0-2?




The A's are in a corner, but they are used to that. The 2006 playoff hopes now hinge on Rich Harden and the A's approach against Kenny Rogers. If Harden can go six innings and the A's can manage 4 runs, they should set themselves up nicely for Game 4 on Saturday.


The offense is going to depend on leadoff hitter Jason Kendall and - only Macha knows why - two hole hitter Mark Kotsay to drive up Rogers' pitch count and get on base. The A's may have been next to last in every category in hitting with runners on base. But eventually if youput enough runners on base, they will sometimes find their way home.


The A's have to take two of three from the Tigers in Detroit and the Tigers were terrible at home down the stretch. Joel Zumaya and Justin Duchscherer are both out with injury so this game takes the tension to the next level. Both pitchers are the managers first choice in relief.

Zumaya with a wrist strain on his throwing hand and Duchscherer - what else, his back. You can imagine what good warm weather does for a bad back and what a three hour plane ride and snow flurries do for a bad back. I would not be surprised if Mark Kotsay is out as well. He and Duchscherer seem to play dueling Doan's a lot.

If that is the case, Jay Payton would move to center and with Kenny Rogers pitching - Bobby Kielty would move to left field. I would be for Dan Johnson getting to start at 1st base over Swisher for defense and at the plate.


BOOM:There has been a lot of excuses flying around about why Eric Chavez is playing so poorly in the field. His two errors called singles thus far in the series have both been back breakers leading to three runs. Some are pointing to his bad hamstring or his shoulder. These were the same excuse makers who were claiming it was okay that Chavez stunk up the place with his bat because his defense was "superior". Well, what now? His defense has been season ending - but he has hit one hit - a HR, one walk and three K's. Throw in that Chavez has back issues and you wonder if he will be sitting next to Macha while Adam Melhuse or Hiram Bocachica take his spot at third.

The A's got spanked and they deserved said treatment as Barry Zito could not pitch close enough to the strike zone to get the Tigers to hack. And when he did throw strikes he was behind in the count and the Tigers made him pay.

On defense the A's had four miscues - one by Chavez that was graciously called an error and two by Nick Swisher. One of those came on a stray relay throw by D'Angelo Jimenex; a good 1st baseman would have come off the bag and blocked the ball or even knocked it down. Watching the replays over at MLB.com Swisher turned away from the ball.

On offense Kotsay and Chavez got squeakers through the infield for hits but the A's were not patient at the plate at all. When they did pose a threat to Nate Robertson - runners at 2nd and 3rd with nobody out - Robertson struck out Chavez, Swisher and Skootch to slam the door. The A's played A's baseball leaving 9 runners on base and grounding into 3 GIDP.

Jim Leyland outmanaged Macha and Macha made curious use of his bullpen. Kiko Calero does not pitch well in back-to-back games and Joe Kennedy is their LOOGY. Why use them down by 5 runs? Lifting Chad Gaudin was ridiculous. He was efficient and effective. Gaudin might be the A's 5th starter next year.

The A's are resilient. They have many feet. This is good because they continuously shoot themselves in the foot and seem to be able to come back. But you should not be surprised by last night's game. The A's led all of MLB with 170 grounded into double plays (GIDP) - the 5th highest total in MLB since 1939 and broke the Athletics record for GIDP in a season. That included Philadelphia, Kansas City and Oakland. The A's were also next to last in Batting Average (AVG), On Base Percentage (OBP) and Slugging Percentage (SLG) with runners in scoring position. That's just who the A's are.

The best you can hope for with the A's is a solid baseball without a lot of mistakes and hope that someone knocks in a few runs at some point. They won 93 games this year with that formula.

So. We got to see some of the same problems the A's had in the regular season creep up. GIDP, LOB and impatient hitters.


Zito was up and away all night to righthanders. The Tigers will hack, but the hack only comes when the pitch is close. Why Macha chosee to pull Gaudin so fast and then use his lefty/righty specialists Kennedy/Calero when down by 5 and then use Blanton for just two innings is beyond questioning. It's too much bother at this hour to break down.


What calls did I miss that didn't go the A's way? I did not have the advantage of instant replay. It looked like Bradley may have been safe at 1st on the GIDP and it also looked lk Nick Swisher enabled the Jimenez error by failing to come off the bag and then turning away from the ball rather than blocking it and keeping it in front of him.


Harden has been moved up to start Game 3 and Haren pushed to Game 4. The A's are also going to take off the tarps if the advance. They were going to have to anyway because the auxillary press already has three sections opened. I would imagine another 3-4 would have to be open for the World Series.

TWO TRIBES

If you take nothing else away from this series of letter and words - heed this, the strike zone is the heart of the game of baseball. It is an eternal battle for control of the strike zone between the hitter and the pitcher and the political struggle of both with the umpire. Having written that, the strike zone will be the most important facet of the 2006 American League Championship Series because how both teams approach it.


The Tigers, by traditional playoff traits; 'momentum', 'experienced manager' and 'veteran leadership' - would appear to have the A's backed into a corner. The A's have been in that corner for months and they seem to use the THE GENTLE WAY to beat the opponent. Pitch well, play solid defense and wait for the moment to counter attack.


The Motor City Kitties come barreling into Oakland having dispatched the 'Evil Empire' (New York Mets, Yankees and Boston Red Sox - the true 'Axis of Evil') in four games. Detroit smacked the Yankees in the mouth and the Yankees were too stupefied to fight back. The Tigers clinched in Detroit and the celebration gave them a huge 'lift'. The A's won on a cold day and while we waited for the boys to come out - they stayed inside where the champagne was a better comfort.


MANAGERS


The Tigers have Jim Leyland, who is a solid manager with three NL East division titles a World Series title with Florida via the Wild Card. Leyland has also some very bad years. Leyland seems to have a better grasp of sabermetrics in practice than A's manager Ken Macha. But the Tigers don't play that type of game on offense. The Tigers do user the utmost care with their pitchers and as a result - Tigers pitching is outstanding. Ken Macha, the bane of many an A's fan existence, chews gum and has two AL West division titles.


Both managers are prone to mistakes on the big stage.


The Tigers have 25 guys; some of whom you've heard of, others you might have and a bunch of guys you would have to look up before you drafted them for your fantasy team. There are some good back stories that relate to the Oakland A's (Jeremy Bonderman, Kenny Rogers) some guys that were thought to have fizzled out (Marcus Thames, Craig Monroe, Magglio Ordonez) and some developing careers (Justin Verlander, Joel Zumaya), there's also Ivan Rodriguez who might be crowned 'champion maker' since leaving Texas.


THE A's


The A's don't run and they probably won't run on Ivan Rodriguez. Kenny Rogers has one of the better pick off moves in baseball and running on Joel Zumaya and Justin Verlander is risky. Most young pitchers do not have good pick off moves or moves to first base. But both get the ball to the plate so quickly it is a risk that the A's would have to weigh considerably. Is an extra base, or starting a runner worth the risk of erasing a base runner? Getting outs on the base paths is something the A's are capable of doing by way of the GIDP. Voluntarily limiting their base runners with the running game does not make much sense.


Where the A's have a distinct over the Tigers is their approach at the plate. The A's can wear out Tigers pitching if they consciously work the count. The downfall of the Yankees was an overaggressive approach at the plate with many innings at bat where fewer than 10 pitches were thrown. A little counting tool I like to use is that 15 pitches per inning by the opponent good should be acceptable, 20 pitches per inning by the opponent good and over 25 per inning very good. Do the quick arithmetic in your head; if the opposing pitcher averages more than 20 pitches an inning he will most likely be lifting in or before the sixth inning.


THE TIGERS


And if the Tigers have a glaring weakness it is their bullpen outside of Joel Zumaya and Jamie Walker. Walker is having a fluke season and by all means, who cares if it is at this point? Walker is a fly ball pitcher (70 FB 45 GB) and closer Doug Jones is a rally waiting to happen. Jones can be had but he is effective in that role because he throws a lot, if not all, off speed pitches when batters are aggressive in late innings when behind. This works in the A's favor.


The Tigers are hackers, much like the Twins. They go looking for first pitch strikes and pitchers like Loaiza and Haren should have great games as they make hitters miss. But both make pitches miss with their fastballs and hard breaking pitches. It's going to be, literally, hit or miss. The A's bullpen is a string of off sped pitchers who get hitters to miss and chase. However, Leyland is astute and he could have the Tigers back off and ask his hitters to take a strike. The A's starters were able to play defense and let the Twins make outs. But the Tigers have enough power in their lineup up and down the order that one swing can make the difference in a playoff game.


The A's have a huge hole on the right side of the infield. With Mark Ellis, the human vortex, out for the post season, the A's rely on D'Angelo Jimenez to pick up the slack. Coupled with Nick Swisher at 1st, left-handed hitters can have a field day with ground balls to the right side. While I am constantly attacked for pointing out Nick Swisher's weaknesses, he has several and they are easily exploited. Particularly on defense. Swisher strays too far from the bag, making it difficult for pitchers and second basemen to make plays. Swisher's first instinct when catching the ball at first is to go into the 'splits'. While it might look good on camera - it is not the best way too field balls and with Jimenez and Scutaro throwing over, neither with strong or accurate arms, in this series it could be costly.


THE MATCH GAME


The Twins and Tigers are more similar than the A's and Yankees. While the Twins did not play good baseball, the A's played solid baseball and were able to quickly dispatch them. The Yankees bombed the Tigers in Game 1 and then checked out. Swinging often and early, they made outs faster than a minute, eastern standard time.


If the A's continue to play solid baseball and limit mistakes on the mound and on defense it could be a short series. The A's offense has taken its opportunities in the post season whereas in the regular season they left men on base and hit into a ton of GIDP. The A's offense can do more with patience in this series than in the past. But the A's seem to come up big when they need to. The Tigers and A's both have similar line-ups in that there does not appear to be but one superior hitter in each lineup; Frank Thomas for the A's and Carlos Guillen for the Tigers. Interestingly, there has been talk of both players as the unsung MVPs of the American League. Again, where the Tigers have an advantage is in power. The Tigers have 7 hitters with more than 15 HR, while the A's have but 3.


PROGNOSIS


I could care less about predictions from a team standpoint. What I hope for is a solid game by both teams. The A's have caught the breaks recently and that could be the difference maker.


In the ALCS I think the defense up the middle is going to be the biggest factor for the A's. Whereas in the ALDS I wrote that the offensive production for Marco Scutaro and Mark Ellis would be the factor. I still think Mark Kotsay and Huston Street are huge question marks for the A's. Kotsay's big hit was a soft line that Torii Hunter misplaced for an inside the park HR. Kotsay reached base a grand total of twice in the series and he and Kendall combined for 6 K's. Kendall led off all three games in the series with a K.


And, again, the hanging cloud is Rich Harden.


For the Tigers the A's have to shut down their outfielders - Ordonez, Granderson and Monroe at the plate. Though I expect Guillen and Marcus Thames to produce in spades. The Tigers have decided to pitch Kenny Rogers in game 3 rather than in game 2, where his record at the Coliseum is outstanding. Though, it does leave him available for Game 6 or 7 at the Coliseum if it comes to that.


Here are the expected pitching match-ups for the first 4 games;

GAME 1	TUE	5:00 (PST) Oakland Coliseum	Nate Robertson	vs	Barry Zito
GAME 2	WED	5:00 (PST) Oakland Coliseum	Justin Verlander	vs	Esteban Loaiza
GAME 3	FRI	5:00 (PST) Comerica Park	Danny Haren	vs	Kenny Rogers
GAME 4	SAT	4:30 (PST) Comerica Park	Rich Harden/Joe Blanton	vs	Jeremy Bonderman