Wednesday, February 27, 2008
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| FLETCH's Mini-BIO: I was born and raised in the East Bay. I have since spent time in San Francisco, Tokyo (Japan), and I'm now back in LA in grad school at UCLA. Whenever I'm in SF, odds are you'll find me at the 500 Club. I have been an A's fan since my inception in the late 70's. My defining moment came in 1988 at Game 5 of the World Series, when I called Orel Hershisher a bitch before the game. I started a ridiculous A's blog (BostonHasAIDS), in 2006 while I was living in Japan, as an inside joke with some friends who I went to many A's games with while we were living in SF. I found out in November that the A's would start the season in Japan versus the Boston Red Sox, but I do remember my initial reaction. "A's vs The Chowderheads to start the season in Tokyo?!! Hell yes, it's in March - when is my Spring Break?" I immediately found out that it was timed perfectly, as the games were taking place over Spring Break, and my wife and I were planning on visiting Japan at that time anyway! That's right bitches, Tokyo road trip. A quick aside - it might not be that interesting, but you're probably wondering why the hell I was planning on visiting Japan anyway. Long story short, I went to Japan 10 years ago on an exchange program, where I met my wife. While we live in LA now, my in-laws still live in Tokyo, and all of my wife's friends from childhood through college still live in Tokyo and we try to visit them at least once a year. Plus, for anyone who has never been to Japan, it's an awesome experience and it is the best culture I've ever known and the people are awesome. So anyway, I was in a unique position, since we have friends and family there. There was an online "lottery" for tickets in January. So we put in a request for 4 tickets for Game 1 and 6 tickets for Game 2, and we found out last week that we were selected for both games (I'm not sure if anyone was denied, but I don't care since I got mine). We were lucky, since I believe you had to either have someone in Japan to go pick up the tix and/or have a Japanese credit card, and I had both of those. The games are actually quite a bit more expensive than normal games; they used the same pricing as the WBC, which I went to while I was living there. It will be worth it though, for the Japanese beer girls alone. As many people can probably imagine, baseball has always been huge in Japan, but now there is a lot more interest in MLB with the influx of Japanese players in to the US. Obviously the most popular teams being NYY, Seattle and Boston. Its funny, once in a while I see old school A's starter jackets from the Bash Brothers days, when the A's ran shit in MLB, and were the hated big boys. Things have certainly changed. So obviously, w/ Matsuzaka and Okajima on Boston, I'm imagining that 95% of the fans that actually have MLB gear on will be wearing Boston gear, or as I like to call it - granny panties. For those who don't know, Japan is interesting in that they actually split the stadium in half, w/ 1 team's fans sitting on the 3rd base side, the other on the 1st base side. We'll be on the 3rd base side - Ole Chavy! I'll try to get some more stories and info down, but I assure you I'll get some good pics and stories from the week + in Japan. |
...and let the rhetoric commence. Joe Blanton's name is popping up, again, in trade rumors. Buster Olney takes a stab at possible suitors. I don’t mind speculation but I feel that sportswriters do not do a very job of clearly stating that their speculation is just that. I'd rather go with an unconfirmed and unnamed source than trust a sportswriter.
From Olney's article:The Market for Blanton
posted: Monday, February 11, 2008
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=olney_buster
http://elephantsinoakland.com/FORUM/viewtopic.php?p=475#475
Dan Haren probably had the most trade value of any pitcher as the off-season began, and he went first, to Arizona. The Johan Santana domino fell, and then the long-discussed Erik Bedard deal went down.
And now Oakland's Joe Blanton is the best pitcher available, an innings-eating plowhorse who, at 27 years old, has demonstrated that he can throw in the middle of any rotation. Blanton has made 98 starts and thrown 625.2 innings the last three seasons, compiling a 3.95 ERA in 2007. With the Athletics in long-term rebuilding mode, it makes sense for them to deal him now, as he starts to make his climb up the arbitration-fueled part of the salary ladder.
The Reds, desperately needing another solid piece for their thin rotation, seem to be the most aggressive team in pursuing Blanton so far, although Cincinnati likely wouldn't have to part with superprospect Jay Bruce if it wins the bidding. But circumstances may nudge other teams to get involved. If the Reds are the front-runners, in the pole position, here's how the rest of the field may line up in the Blanton talks.
2. The Dodgers
They talked extensively about a Blanton trade at the deadline last summer, and have continued to consider the idea. But despite all the conversation, the Dodgers have been steadfast in holding onto their prospects. And with a rotation that includes Brad Penny, Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley and Hiroki Kuroda, L.A. may simply not be motivated enough to finish a Dodgers deal.
3. The Yankees
They've had some internal discussions about Blanton during the winter, as part of their due diligence. General manager Brian Cashman has made it clear he wants to hold onto the most evolved Yankees prospects -- Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy -- and given their exit from the Santana trade talks, that might seem to take them out of play in the Blanton conversations.
But there is this: The Yankees have no idea how their No. 2 starter, Andy Pettitte, may or may not be affected by his part in Roger Clemens' fight to clear his name. He might be fine, or might be distracted. The Yankees would need another stabilizing force in the middle of their rotation, between ace Chien-Ming Wang and the talented but inexperienced youngsters.
And the Yankees can make a deal for Blanton without surrendering either Joba Chamberlain or Hughes, because the Athletics aren't necessarily looking for major-league ready prospects in return for Blanton. They would take talented players from Class A or Double-A.
4. The Angels
In the same week that the Mariners added Bedard to a rotation more than suitable to contend for the playoffs, the Angels learned that Kelvim Escobar will not be ready for the start of the season. Los Angeles has a No. 1 in John Lackey and a couple of other good starters in Jered Weaver and Jon Garland, but the loss of Escobar could have enormous implications; he was a candidate for the Cy Young Award last year, and now the Angels have no idea what he can give them this season.
The Angels have the prospects to make a move, and Oakland GM Billy Beane has never had any reservations about making a deal with a division rival.
5. The Red Sox
Boston wasn't counting on much more than 8-10 victories and 100 to 150 innings from Curt Schilling, and with Schilling's 2008 season now at risk, the Red Sox are in an excellent fallback position with Clay Buchholz. But Schilling's injury does leave the Red Sox in an uncomfortable position of relying on Tim Wakefield to stay healthy. Boston executives, like those of the Yankees, have had internal talks about Blanton, and the Red Sox have prospects like Jed Lowrie to offer.
. . .
6. The Phillies
Lest there be any doubt, Philadelphia would love to have Blanton. But the Phillies continue to run up against the same roadblock in every major trade conversation: They simply don't have much in the way of minor league depth from which to fashion a trade.
In the piece Olney references this article from some chowder head.
The A's were rumored to be pursuing Mike Cameron and Coco Crisp. Which makes sense from their defensive value; good centerfielders chasing down flyballs make a pitcher's number better. Better numbers mean a higher cost when it comes to trade. Except when you get rid of a major chip whose numbers you are attempting to buttress then it becomes a little hazardous. Offensively, age and asking price for Cameron was ridiculous. Crisp suddenly has lost all of his power. In 2004-5 Crisp his 31 HR and had a slugging percentage over .440. The last two seasons Crisp has hit 14 HR and his OBP is less than league average. The A's could only be targeting prospects from the Red Sox and the Red Sox brain trust is better than the A's. What is chuckle worthy is calling Rich Harden "more expensive" than Blanton. While true a team with a payroll the size of the Red Sox has little to worry about when it comes to cash on hand.
Speculating I could see the A's taking Jon Lester and a 'lesser' prospect such as shortstop Oscar Tejeda, or outfielders Lars Anderson or Josh Reddick. Righty Michael Bowden might be a Blanton clone and Beane loves LHP so Nick Hagadone could be a consideration. Really, if the A's make a deal I would not be surprised to see the "Player to be Named Later" appears. The Red Sox obviously draft and develop well. Their minor league system has OBP that are incredible.
the A's signed Keith Foulke to a substantial deal on Friday. Substantial in that it seems like a load of bread upfront for a guy who retired. And for a pitcher who lived off his change-up, doesn't have his fastball any longer and recently had bone chips removed. Here are a few issues with the Mark Sweeney signing;
- Foulke's age; 35
- Foulke was trending in the wrong direction for two seasons prior to his retirement.
- Without a secondary pitch to off set the change-up Foulke necessarily becomes a liability whether starting, in long or short relief.
- According to reports the salary for Foulke is $700,000 with incentives that can reach $2.5 Million - that is a lot for a guy who has not faced live hitting in two seasons.
- Foulke's deal is a major league deal; meaning he is on the 25 Man Roster and Wes Bankston was designated for assignment to clear room on the 40 Man Roster.
- While Foulke says his arm feels the best it has in three to four years - results and outcomes matter more than how the guy's arm feels.
The deal could very well work out with Foulke providing moderate relief for a team that aspires for .500 baseball in 2008. It simply does not bode well for a pitcher like Brad Ziegler who should break camp on the 25 Man Roster and by June be a huge trading chip for the A's.
This brings us to the signing of Mark Sweeney. It's no secret that Billy Beane has long coveted Sweeney. Beane called him the best hitter in the American League at the beginning of the century. However, again, the A's are banking on 'hope' and that rarely works for them. Here are a few issues with the Sweeney signing:
- Sweeney doesn't have the personality that fits in well with some players, coaches and management.
- Sweeney is already in the doghouse for reporting the signing prior to local media prior to actually signing a contract.
- Sweeney has yet to pass a physical that has been reported.
- Sweeney's Christian antics have caused issue in the past.
- Sweeney does not have the best track record in the clubhouse.
There are positives with the deal. It is a minor league deal. It's not clear if he will be placed on the 40 Man Roster or not. Then again, Sweeney's report didn't exactly mention that. If he is not treated like the 'royalty' that he has been made out to be there could be further problems.
Sweeney has hit well at the Coliseum in his career, just off his career marks:
Career .299/.369/.492
Coliseum .291/.386/.477
What does cause some raised eyebrows is the continual mention of trading Dan Johnson and Daric Barton as the 1st baseman. Barton's ability around the first base bag is far better as a hitter than a fielder. He was so bad in Sacramento he was moved to 3rd base to lessen the number of chanced he would touch the ball. Remember this is a player who was effectively removed from catching duties within a few minutes of catching the first day pitchers and catchers reported in 2005. DJ is by far the better fielder but his career in Oakland has been tarnished by the A's coaching staff messing with his mind, health and swing.
As an A's fan I would much rather see the A's package a deal around Jack Cust than DJ leaving Barton as DH. Sweeney really doesn't make sense in the least. Recall what having a permanent DH does to the 25 Man Roster with limitations. With 3 DH's it makes it all the more complicated.
GREETINGS FROM RICHMOND
In the past week there have been a lot of lists flying about regarding prospects and it's the time of year when fantasy baseball drafts start their lists and depth charts. We'll go over that this week and next week we'll look at projections by PECOTA, Ron Shandler and Bill James. There is also a new writer at MLB.com; Jayson Addcox who is starting to create problems.
I did want to touch on something from Joe Sheehan of Baseball Prospectuswho has a Spring Training Preview. Also, Gary Huckabay will be chatting at 11:00 AM (PST) today.Oakland Athletics
Where: Phoenix, Arizona (Cactus League)
2007 record: 76-86 (3rd, AL West)
New guys: Joey Devine, Dana Eveland, Carlos Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney
Gone guys: Dan Haren, Mark Kotsay, Mike Piazza, Marco Scutaro, Shannon Stewart (Ed. Note. Nick Swisher, too.--JSS.)
Wow, he’s still here?: Joe Blanton was expected to be on the next plane out following Dan Haren’s, but Billy Beane has yet to move the big right-hander.
Winter grade: C
Beane executed the plan to a point, making it clear that the A’s are playing for the new park. However, he’s still left with the Eric Chavez contract, with Bobby Crosby’s deal, and with Blanton. The job is not yet finished.
NRI to watch: Opportunity abounds in this camp. Keep an eye on outfielder Aaron Cunningham, part of the Haren package. Despite being bounced around by a mid-season trade from the White Sox to the Diamondbacks, he performed well in three leagues, and finished the year with 51 walks and 57 extra-base hits to go with a .308 BA. It’s not an exaggeration to suggest that he’s the best outfielder in the organization right now.
Job battle to track: Bad teams generally have plenty of playing time to be won, and the A’s enter camp with question marks in two outfield spots, and arguably at both first base and catcher as well. The best fight, however, could be in the rotation, where new A’s Gio Gonzalez and Dana Eveland will put pressure on holdover Lenny DiNardo and relief-to-starter project Justin Duchscherer.
One move to make: Paying Eric Chavez $37 million through 2010 is a waste of money for a team that’s trying to spend as little as possible at the moment. The A’s have to leverage his first hot streak to get out from under the deal, even if it means taking a small value hit in exchange.
This is the first A’s camp in nearly a decade that brings together a team without championship aspirations. That’s a hard sell for Oakland fans, who never got a taste of postseason success while the team was good, and now face the prospect of watching bad teams in a lousy ballpark for a few years. There’s the potential for excitement here, as Cunningham, Daric Barton and Carlos Gonzalez could form the core of a contender eventually. For now, though, the remnants of the failed Harden/Crosby A’s will drift through a tough couple of years.
And now, the lists. First is Keith Law's Top 100 Prospects, Top 5 by Position and Top 5 by Team.
From Keith's Top 100:#38 Daric Barton (1B - Oakland A's)
AGE: 22
People who didn't read or didn't understand Moneyball would refer to Barton as a Moneyball player, because he gets on base and isn't a great athlete. He was a first-round pick by St. Louis, which traded him to Oakland in the Mark Mulder deal, so it's hard to argue that the market undervalued his skills (which was the real point of the book). Now, Barton would be highly coveted by a number of clubs because he is big league ready and has a very advanced approach at the plate. The question is his power, which projects in only the 15-20 homer range, light for a first baseman. That increases the pressure on Barton to put up OBPs in the low .400s to provide sufficient offensive value. He has a good enough eye and good enough plate coverage to do it.
#42 Carlos Gonzalez (CF/RF - Oakland A's)
AGE: 22
Gonzalez, the centerpiece of Oakland's haul in the Dan Haren trade, still has not seen his performance catch up to his tools. He has a smooth, simple, left-handed swing that should generate a ton of contact, but he is too pull-oriented and leaves himself exposed on the outer half. He already has 55 power and projects to have more as he fills out, but he will need to continue to work on his pitch recognition and approach to get to that level. On defense, he played mostly right field in the Arizona system, which was chock-full of center fielders, but he could return to center in the Oakland organization, giving him some star potential. He has an average arm for right field, but he gets good reads off the ball and should be fine in center if the A's choose to put him there.
#57 Fautino de los Santos (RHP - Oakland A's)
AGE: 22
De los Santos was the potential star among the three players the A's received from the White Sox for Nick Swisher. He's a two-pitch pitcher with a 91-95 mph fastball with some late life and a hard breaking ball with a sharp 11-to-5 break. His command is below average, and he has a tendency to leave his front shoulder open, especially when throwing the breaking ball, and he doesn't have a solid third pitch. At wo