WILL POWER: RICH HARDEN



From Will Carroll's Under the Knife column today at Baseball Prospectus:
EiO: What is Rich Harden's status or is that a vague question doomed to a vague answer; are going to have to wait to find out?
WILL CARROLL: The answer is yes. Waiting is good - for wines, good scotch, and young pitchers.

Back before September 2006 = 50%
Tommy John Surgery in 2006 = 50%
Lengthy DL stint/no surgery =(do these have to add up) ? %
Barry Zito's trade/stay status changes because of any of the above = 10%

EiO:
Why are the A's so tight-fisted with their information, particularly their medical information? It seems to come back and bite them in the ass too often.

WILL CARROLL:
Ask the Cubs. No, I have no idea. I think its more an organizational imperative to control information on all fronts rather than any one specific injury focus.

EiO:
Harden has had several injuries the last few years. Some strange. Some that might lead people to believe that they are of a compensatory nature. Oh, and what is a compensation injury?

WILL CARROLL:
A compensation injury is something that occurs when the body is trying to keep another part from getting injured. Walk with a rock in one shoe and your other foot won't be the same. I worry more about Harden's physique. He doesn't look real flexible to me.

EiO:
There has been a lot of noise about Rich Harden's body, that he's too muscular, too ripped, lifts too much, doesn't stretch enough. Is this another Tim Hudson situation, where a slender body causes problems?

WILL CARROLL:
I'm not sure it's "too muscular" as much as it's "not flexible." Jean-Claude Van Damme was both ripped and flexible, not that it made his movies any more watchable.

EiO:
Should we consider the John Daly/David Wells/Tony Gwynn diet in the future?

WILL CARROLL:
No. Oh good lord no. There is a happy medium.

EiO:
How much can you tell of a pitcher's build at that age that could be a problem?

WILL CARROLL:
We're not there yet. More motion analysis would help. Tom House is doing a lot of great work on this.

EiO:
Harden took to pitching very late in his teens. Could Harden's unfamiliarity with the overall process of pitching, and even baseball, have contributed to his problems, or do you think the A's would have that under control?

WILL CARROLL:
I can't see any negative - it's the "cold weather pitcher" theory. They mature later (as pitchers) but don't have as much wear and tear. I think it's a wash.

EiO:
Okay, so, the next question is, what the hell is that matter with the A's organization when it comes to pitchers? There have been serious injuries on the big league roster despite being so 'deep' on paper. In their minor league system the cupboard is bare when it comes to left-handers and there have been (gulp) arm injuries. Serious arm injuries that were essentially unheard of under Rick Peterson.

Can we attribute this to a change in philosophy within the organization, between the Peterson and Curt Young, and how much of it is just luck?

WILL CARROLL:
I think we have to start looking at the change more seriously. We don't have enough information globally to definitely say, but there certainly appears to be correlation. Luck? I guess in absence of hard data we can call it that.

EiO:
Having said that, would you want Rick Peterson or Curt Young caring for your pitchers (see that, it's a spot, Will - you're on it)?

WILL CARROLL:
Neither is Dallas Green, now are they?

EiO:
Nice, wiggle out of the spot. The A's have seemed to drop a lot of their prehab concept and scientific approach to pitchers. Is this going to be dangerous in the future, especially since the A's have been drafting High School pitchers in the last two drafts?

WILL CARROLL:
I can't comment on the approach - there's not enough transparency to really tell. I don't so much mind the approach. Aside from Italiano, I've liked their picks.

EiO:
At the beginning of the season the A's were supposed to be 7 1/2 deep with starters in their rotation. Right now, they are at about 4, with Loaiza/Saarloos counting for one starter. Some have surmised that the A's should pitch it in and trade Zito, get some prospects and worry about next year.

Can the A's pull off a 4 1/2 man rotation if Ken Macha manages the bullpen correctly?

WILL CARROLL:
Why not a 4 man? If any org can pull it off, it's the A's.

EiO:
The AL West is incredibly weak; the A's have been able to choke as they tread water into mid-June. As a Cubs fan, what would you tell A's fans who are overly optimistic/pessimistic right now?

WILL CARROLL:
I'm not a Cub fan any more.

EiO:
Ah, yes.

Did you pick up Sonic Youth's 'Rather Ripped', yet?

WILL CARROLL:
Not yet, but it's on the list. I've been listening to AC/DC and the new Tom Russell lately.

EiO:
Okay, how about heading to the WebChat every so often?

WILL CARROLL:
I never do game chats or web forums. Heck, I haven't even been blogging lately. For you, maybe.

EiO:
Cool.